LSU’s next stretch is the kind of run that can reshape a season in a hurry.
After a 31-0 win over Mississippi State that featured a strong day from Sam Leavitt and a defense that held the Bulldogs to 121 passing yards, No. 18 LSU now heads to Auburn for an SEC showdown at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT on ABC.
And the Tigers are not easing into the back half of the schedule. Auburn comes first on October 24, then Alabama visits Baton Rouge on November 7, followed by Texas on November 14, Tennessee on November 21 and Arkansas to close out the regular season.
ESPN FPI has updated its read on what LSU should expect from that gauntlet, and the numbers paint a mixed picture: solid chances in every game, but plenty of danger packed into the final month.
Before the season, ESPN FPI had LSU at 8.4 projected wins, with a 39.7 percent shot at the College Football Playoff and a 3.5 percent chance to win the national championship. After Week 7, those numbers shifted to 8.3 projected wins, a 27.7 percent playoff chance and a 2.3 percent title chance.
The toughest test on paper comes against Alabama, which FPI ranks sixth and gives a 9.2 projected win total. LSU’s chance to win that one is 52.6 percent.
Texas is right there in the same neighborhood. The Longhorns are ranked seventh by FPI, with an 8.5 projected win total, and LSU is given a 54.7 percent chance to win that game in Baton Rouge.
Tennessee, meanwhile, lands at No. 12 in the FPI rankings with a projected win total of 9.3. LSU’s win probability there is 57.7 percent.
The Auburn game carries the largest edge for LSU among these matchups. Auburn is ranked 20th by FPI with a 7.2 projected win total, and LSU is listed at 71.2 percent to come out on top.
Auburn’s defense drew strong praise from Alex Golesh, who said, "Defensively, they're a top-10 defense in a lot of ways. They're allowing under 100 yards a game rushing and haven't given up a bunch in the air.
They've created 26 sacks and are giving up under 16 points a game. Up front, the edges are real and create a ton (of pressure).
The second level is really, really good, with seven out. There's depth there, and these corners can roll.
They're physical and can run."
LSU’s other opponents in the stretch also come with their own noise around them. Shane Beamer had high praise for Keelon Russell, saying, "He's special," Beamer said.
"He can make all the throws. He can run.
He made some runs in that (FSU) game that you're just like 'wow' & then he made some throws too. I mean, accurate throws down the sideline & I think what's impressive about him.
He continues to get better. I told coach DeBoer this after the game.
I mean, they've done a remarkable job with him of getting him better & improved from the beginning of the season to now."
Arch Manning also had LSU on his mind during the offseason, saying, "It's going to be really cool. Obviously grew up going to games there every year. It's a great crowd, and we're excited for the challenge," Arch Manning said of the LSU matchup while at this year's Manning Passing Academy.
And before Tennessee hosts LSU, Josh Heupel joked, "Certainly hope our fan base hasn't cooled off," Josh Heupel joked about Lane Kiffin. "Whether it's the grocery stores being fully stocked with mustard or our sports stores, making sure that they've got reinforcements on the golf balls, hopefully Knoxville's ready for his arrival.
For LSU, the runway to the finish is clear: Auburn first, then Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas. FPI says the Tigers should have a shot in every one of them.
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The report still leaves LSU with some notable names to monitor, including Whit Weeks, Dashawn Spears, Phillip Wright III, Charles Ross II and Richard Anderson listed out or doubtful. Auburns own report shows Tai Buster, Hunter Herring and Saint Farrior out, but the bigger question for LSU is how close Green is to returning to his normal workload and what kind of impact he can have after the layoff. [Read more 🡒]