LSU’s loss to Ole Miss didn’t just sting in the moment. It also nudged the Tigers into a more precarious spot as Week 4 arrives, with Texas A&M waiting in Death Valley and no room left for another SEC stumble.
At 2-1 overall and 0-1 in league play, LSU is staring at a stretch that suddenly feels urgent after falling to the Rebels in Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford. The Tigers now head into Saturday night’s matchup with the Aggies trying to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC action.
That backdrop matters because ESPN’s Football Power Index has already adjusted its outlook for LSU’s season. The FPI is designed, in ESPN’s words, to forecast team strength and project what the rest of the year could look like using 20,000 simulations, current results, and the remaining schedule.
Before the season kicked off, the model had LSU penciled in for 8.4 wins. It also gave the Tigers a 39.7 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff and a 3.5 percent chance to win the national championship.
After three weeks, those numbers have shifted. LSU’s projected win total is now 7.9, its playoff odds have dipped to 27.6 percent, and its national title chance has fallen to 2.2 percent. That still ranks eighth-best in the country, according to the FPI.
With a quarter of the 2026 season already in the books, LSU’s next few weeks will go a long way toward showing whether those projections can hold up.
In Other News...
Lane Kiffin Turns LSU Loss Into Bigger SEC Scheduling Frustration
Lane Kiffin did not need long after LSUs Week 3 loss at Ole Miss in Oxford to steer the conversation toward the larger SEC issue he believes helped shape the night. The game was played in Oxford for the second straight year, and Kiffin, now on the LSU sideline after his old stop in Oxford, said the setup left the Tigers dealing with the kind of home-field edge and crowd noise that can tilt a big conference matchup before the ball is even snapped.
For LSU, the frustration goes beyond one difficult road trip. Kiffins comments put a familiar scheduling gripe back in the spotlight, especially in a league where venue balance can matter as much as rankings in September. The loss itself will linger, but so will the broader question of why a game with this much SEC weight ended up in the same place again, and what that means going forward for a Tigers program trying to keep pace in the conference race. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Gets A Telling Warning From Mike Elko Before SEC Showdown
With LSU heading into another SEC test, Texas A&M coach Mike Elko offered a little advance scouting on what the Tigers are walking into. He described LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt as a competitive, physical player, the kind of signal-caller who can make a defense work for every stop and keep a game uncomfortable if he gets into a rhythm.
Elko also addressed the other side of the matchup, noting that his experience against Lane Kiffins offense is limited but that he has plenty of respect for Kiffins track record and coaching ability. For LSU, it serves as a reminder that this is not just another conference game on the schedule, but one with a respected opponent on the other sideline and a quarterback drawing real attention before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
LSU's Offense Just Raised A Bigger Sam Leavitt Concern
LSUs offense did show a real step forward on the ground against Ole Miss, piling up 172 rushing yards and getting a strong day from Dilin Jones, who finished with 106 of them. Sam Leavitt also gave the offense some useful dual-threat production, throwing for 158 yards and a touchdown while adding 63 rushing yards and another score, but the passing game still left enough room for second-guessing after a performance that featured a missed chance or two through the air.
Lane Kiffin pointed to those passing-game issues as part of the broader picture, noting that Leavitt had missed practice and stressing the need for better protection and sharper execution. The running game can buy some time and keep drives alive, but if the offense is going to take the next step, the concern is whether Leavitt and the passing attack can clean up quickly enough to match it. [Read more 🡒]