LSU took a brutal hit with that loss to Kentucky, but the Tigers didn’t get buried. Not even close.
What looked like a season-killer quickly turned into something very different as the rest of the SEC started to wobble around them. Alabama and Texas both stumbled in consecutive weeks.
Georgia got caught by Auburn. Tennessee knocked off Alabama, then turned around and lost to South Carolina.
Ole Miss, which beat LSU in Week 3, picked up its second loss against Texas after the Longhorns had already dropped games they should have won against Oklahoma and Florida.
That chaos has cracked the playoff race wide open. Heading into this weekend, Kentucky and Georgia are the only SEC teams with one loss, and nobody in the league is undefeated.
So while LSU’s defeat to Kentucky initially looked devastating, the Tigers are still very much in the mix for the College Football Playoff.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, LSU has a 45% chance to make the 12-team field. Only four SEC teams have better odds: Georgia at 80%, Alabama at 63%, Texas at 57% and Kentucky at 52%.
Ole Miss sits at 39%, while Tennessee is at 23% and Florida at 17%. Those are the only other SEC teams above 10%.
The math gets even friendlier for LSU if it handles the rest of its schedule. ESPN’s tool gives the Tigers at least a 99% chance to reach the playoff if they win out in the regular season. Even if they slip once in their final three games against Alabama, Texas and Tennessee, their chances stay above 60%.
The specific combinations matter. A loss to Alabama with wins over Texas and Tennessee still leaves LSU at 62%.
If the Tigers beat Alabama and Tennessee but lose to Texas, their odds rise to 65%. If they fall to Tennessee but beat Alabama and Texas, they’re also at 65%.
Those numbers assume LSU finishes the regular season at 9-3 and misses the SEC Championship Game. But there’s another path in play. If the Tigers somehow get into the conference title game at 9-3 and lose there, their playoff odds would sit somewhere between 40% and 50%, depending on which regular-season game produced that third defeat.
LSU still has control over its own fate with Texas, Alabama and Tennessee ahead. But the Tigers could get an extra boost if other SEC contenders take another hit.
Ole Miss and Florida both have two losses already, so another setback would weaken their cases. Missouri is also in that bucket, with two losses and matchups left against Kentucky, Georgia and Texas.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has just one loss but still has to navigate Tennessee, Florida and Missouri.
And the SEC isn’t the only place LSU is keeping an eye on.
The Tigers’ playoff picture could also brighten if contenders from other leagues keep falling apart. Ohio State may be without its starting quarterback the rest of the way and has already lost to Texas.
Texas Tech entered last week in the top 10 before losing to Cincinnati on Saturday. Indiana has only one loss, to Ohio State, but its offense has sputtered throughout Big Ten play.
Out west and in the Big 12, the field looks shaky too. Oregon already has three losses and will be without quarterback Dante Moore for the rest of the year.
BYU beat Notre Dame two weeks ago, then took a stunning loss to Central Florida last week. The only undefeated Power Four teams left are Miami, Utah and UCLA, and Utah still has two more games against AP Top 25 opponents while Miami has Notre Dame coming up in two weeks.
For LSU, that means the door is still open. Maybe not wide open, but open enough.
In Other News...
LSU Awaits Huge Recruiting Test As Tension Builds Around Will Wade
The next major recruiting swing for LSU basketball arrives Thursday, when five-star 2027 guard Reese Alston is expected to make his college decision. The Tigers are in the mix alongside Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee and Wichita State, giving LSU a real chance to land one of the most coveted young guards in the country and add another high-end name to its future backcourt plans.
Reese Alstons recruitment, though, has carried an extra layer of intrigue because of the public comments from his father, former NBA guard Rafer Alston, about LSU coach Will Wade. With those tensions hanging over the process, the Tigers are waiting to see whether the appeal of the program outweighs the noise around it, and Thursday should provide a clear answer on just how strong LSUs position really is. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Heads Into Alabama Week With One Big Edge And One Concern
The bye week gives LSU a little breathing room before Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on November 7, and the early read from the oddsmakers says the Tigers have earned some respect. Vegas has LSU favored by 3.5 points with a total of 52.5, which reflects how competitive this matchup is expected to be and how much this game could hinge on which version of LSU shows up after a week off.
Health, though, remains the lingering question. LSU has spent much of the season managing injuries, and while some players are making their way back, others are still uncertain for the Alabama game. For a team heading into one of the most important weeks on the schedule, that mix of improvement and uncertainty may end up mattering as much as the line on the board. [Read more 🡒]
LSUs Playoff Hope Now Comes Down To A Brutal SEC Debate
The playoff math around LSU is already getting weird in the kind of way that tends to happen when the SEC starts beating itself up. FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt floated a scenario in which the Tigers could still reach the 2026 College Football Playoff even with three losses, comparing the seasons volatility to 2007 and pointing to a path where November changes everything. In his view, LSU would handle Alabama and Tennessee, while Kentucky would stumble twice, leaving the Tigers positioned to slide into the No. 11 seed.
What makes the discussion even trickier is how much the selection process may end up rewarding timing as much as record. If LSUs losses come early and its best head-to-head results land late, the Tigers could be judged very differently than another team with the same number in the loss column. It is the sort of SEC debate that can feel absurd in September and absolutely central by the time the bracket is drawn. [Read more 🡒]