Urban Meyer isn’t ready to write off LSU just yet.
On The Triple Option podcast, Meyer was asked point-blank whether the Tigers were already done as a College Football Playoff team after stumbling to 4-2, and he pushed back on the idea that the door is closed.
"I really wanted to talk about this and get ready for three-loss teams," said Meyer. "The parity in college football has never been like this in our lifetimes."
That bigger picture is part of why LSU still has some life. Meyer pointed to the new playoff landscape and suggested that teams with multiple losses won’t be nearly as rare in the 12-team era. He didn’t label LSU a favorite by any stretch, but he also wasn’t willing to put them in the no-chance category.
"I still think they have a shot," he said. "If you had to say 50/50, they're below 50 [percent] that they'll make it, but I still think they have a shot. I think you're going to see.... two to three teams in that 12-team Playoff with three losses."
The numbers back up the uphill climb. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU only a 16.2% chance to reach the Playoff, and the road from here is brutal.
The Tigers’ remaining slate includes No. 16 Mississippi State this weekend, followed by No.
6 Alabama, No. 7 Texas and a trip to No.
14 Tennessee.
Winning out would be the cleanest route, but FPI pegs that chance at just 4.4%. With losses already on the resume against Ole Miss and Kentucky, LSU may need perfection the rest of the way - or at minimum a 5-1 finish - to stay in the conversation.
Recent playoff history shows there’s at least some precedent for teams hanging around with three losses. In the 2024 CFP field, Clemson was the only three-loss team to make it, and that came after the Tigers won the ACC championship. Then in 2025, three-loss Alabama took the final spot over a 10-2 Notre Dame team in a decision that stirred plenty of debate.
And with the SEC packed tightly at the top, LSU is hardly alone in this fight. Florida, Oklahoma and LSU have all already dropped two games, while Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas each have just one loss. That means the Tigers need to survive starting Saturday in Week 7, when they meet Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State.
In Other News...
LSU's Bigger Worry After This Win Is Hard To Ignore
LSUs exhibition win over Central Florida offered a useful snapshot of where Will Wades roster stands heading into the season: capable of scoring, competitive even while short-handed, but still waiting on the kind of full lineup that can make the Tigers hard to judge. The 85-81 result came with LSU using fewer players than it expects to have once the regular season begins, and senior transfer Abdi Bashir Jr. helped carry the offense with 26 points while point guard Donovan Dent added 21 points and 11 assists.
The broader concern is less about the result than the unfinished nature of the roster this close to November 3. Wade said he is hopeful LSU will have additional players cleared by the NCAA before the opener, which would change both the depth chart and the way this team can be evaluated. Until then, the Tigers are left leaning on a thin rotation and waiting to see whether the version they roll out for the regular season looks anything like the one fans expect to watch. [Read more 🡒]
LSUs Mississippi State Outlook Suddenly Hinges On One Huge Unknown
The first injury report for LSU and Mississippi State added an immediate layer of uncertainty to an already important SEC matchup, with both sides dealing with notable absences and a few names still hanging in the balance. LSU already knows it will be without Trey'Dez Green and Whit Weeks, while Tylen Singleton is listed as questionable, leaving the Tigers to sort through depth issues before kickoff.
For Mississippi State, the spotlight lands on quarterback Kamario Taylor, whose foot injury has him questionable heading into Friday. His status is the biggest variable in the game and the one that could shape how the Bulldogs approach LSU, making the next update feel especially important for both teams as they prepare for a meeting with plenty still unsettled. [Read more 🡒]
UCF Showed Promise But One Late Issue Still Looks Costly
UCF came away with plenty to like from its exhibition trip to the Maravich Assembly Center, where the Knights pushed LSU deep into the closing minutes before falling 85-81. Dior Johnson led UCF with 18 points in a game that stayed tight throughout, while LSU leaned on Abdi Bashir, who finished with 26 to help keep the Tigers afloat when the action tightened.
What stood out for LSU was not just the scoring punch, but the way the game settled into a late-possession fight, exactly the kind of stress test both teams wanted in October. UCF had enough shot-making to stay level, yet one costly late sequence swung the result, leaving the Knights with encouragement and a reminder that the smallest mistakes can decide these exhibition games. [Read more 🡒]