LSU’s road through the rest of the regular season looks anything but forgiving, and ESPN’s Football Power Index has now put fresh numbers on just how tricky it could get.
The No. 22 Tigers enter Saturday morning’s Top-25 matchup with Mississippi State in Death Valley at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play.
Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT on ESPN, and LSU is coming off a gut-punch loss at Kentucky last Saturday night, a 35-34 overtime defeat in Lexington.
The setback has only intensified the pressure. LSU is now at the midpoint of the 2026 season with two losses, and the margin for error has shrunk to nothing with games against Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas still ahead.
"After a loss, sometimes it's difficult because you look at situations and ask what you didn't do to win the game or what you did to lose it. Sometimes, there aren't too many coaching points or things to change," Leavitt said.
"That's the message right now: Just keep putting our heads down. Our offense has been getting better week by week.
I'm not on the defensive side of the ball, but they've been doing an incredible job all season. I have nothing but faith in them."
Before the season began, ESPN FPI gave LSU an 8.4 projected win total, along with a 39.7 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff and a 3.5 percent chance to win the national championship.
After Week 6, those numbers have slid. LSU’s projected win total is now 7.7, its playoff odds have dropped to 15.1 percent, and its national title chances are down to 0.7 percent.
Now comes the updated game-by-game outlook for the rest of the schedule.
Against Mississippi State on October 17 in Baton Rouge, ESPN FPI gives LSU a 76.8 percent chance to win. The Bulldogs are ranked 27th in FPI and have a projected win total of 7.6.
Jeff Lebby called LSU “A really talented football team. They got great players, all three levels, both sides of the football.
I mean you can see it all over the tape, the length, the speed, and incredibly well coached both sides of the ball. So, an incredible challenge for us.
Our guys are gonna be really excited about it. Again, being able to reset, get fresh and fast, and put our best foot forward Saturday morning at 11.”
The next week, LSU travels to Auburn on October 24, where the Tigers are given a 71.3 percent chance to win. Auburn sits 32nd in FPI with a projected win total of 6.1.
For the November 7 game in Baton Rouge against Alabama, LSU’s win probability dips sharply to 38.6 percent. Alabama is ranked fifth in FPI with a projected win total of 10.2.
Shane Beamer’s comment on Keelon Russell was included in the update: "He's special," Beamer said. "He can make all the throws.
He can run. He made some runs in that (FSU) game that you're just like 'wow' & then he made some throws too.
I mean, accurate throws down the sideline & I think what's impressive about him. He continues to get better.
I told coach DeBoer this after the game. I mean, they've done a remarkable job with him of getting him better & improved from the beginning of the season to now."
LSU then hosts Texas on November 14, and FPI gives the Tigers a 42.7 percent shot in that one. Texas comes in ranked seventh with a projected win total of 9.7.
At this year’s Manning Passing Academy, Arch Manning called the matchup “It's going to be really cool. Obviously grew up going to games there every year.
It's a great crowd, and we're excited for the challenge,” Arch Manning said of the LSU matchup while at this year's Manning Passing Academy.
The regular season closes with a November 21 trip to Tennessee, where LSU’s win probability rises to 54.4 percent. Tennessee is ranked 13th in FPI and carries a projected win total of 8.4.
Josh Heupel also had a line in the offseason buzz section: "Certainly hope our fan base hasn't cooled off," Josh Heupel joked about Lane Kiffin. "Whether it's the grocery stores being fully stocked with mustard or our sports stores, making sure that they've got reinforcements on the golf balls, hopefully Knoxville's ready for his arrival.
LSU's FPI Chance to win: 89.6%
Opponent FPI rank: 61st
Opponent projected win total: 3.3
In Other News...
LSU's Bigger Worry After This Win Is Hard To Ignore
LSUs exhibition win over Central Florida offered a useful snapshot of where Will Wades roster stands heading into the season: capable of scoring, competitive even while short-handed, but still waiting on the kind of full lineup that can make the Tigers hard to judge. The 85-81 result came with LSU using fewer players than it expects to have once the regular season begins, and senior transfer Abdi Bashir Jr. helped carry the offense with 26 points while point guard Donovan Dent added 21 points and 11 assists.
The broader concern is less about the result than the unfinished nature of the roster this close to November 3. Wade said he is hopeful LSU will have additional players cleared by the NCAA before the opener, which would change both the depth chart and the way this team can be evaluated. Until then, the Tigers are left leaning on a thin rotation and waiting to see whether the version they roll out for the regular season looks anything like the one fans expect to watch. [Read more 🡒]
LSUs Mississippi State Outlook Suddenly Hinges On One Huge Unknown
The first injury report for LSU and Mississippi State added an immediate layer of uncertainty to an already important SEC matchup, with both sides dealing with notable absences and a few names still hanging in the balance. LSU already knows it will be without Trey'Dez Green and Whit Weeks, while Tylen Singleton is listed as questionable, leaving the Tigers to sort through depth issues before kickoff.
For Mississippi State, the spotlight lands on quarterback Kamario Taylor, whose foot injury has him questionable heading into Friday. His status is the biggest variable in the game and the one that could shape how the Bulldogs approach LSU, making the next update feel especially important for both teams as they prepare for a meeting with plenty still unsettled. [Read more 🡒]
UCF Showed Promise But One Late Issue Still Looks Costly
UCF came away with plenty to like from its exhibition trip to the Maravich Assembly Center, where the Knights pushed LSU deep into the closing minutes before falling 85-81. Dior Johnson led UCF with 18 points in a game that stayed tight throughout, while LSU leaned on Abdi Bashir, who finished with 26 to help keep the Tigers afloat when the action tightened.
What stood out for LSU was not just the scoring punch, but the way the game settled into a late-possession fight, exactly the kind of stress test both teams wanted in October. UCF had enough shot-making to stay level, yet one costly late sequence swung the result, leaving the Knights with encouragement and a reminder that the smallest mistakes can decide these exhibition games. [Read more 🡒]