Lane Kiffin has LSU rolling into the heart of SEC play, and the latest ESPN Football Power Index sees the Tigers staying in the mix as the 2026 season moves past its first five games.
LSU is 4-1 after five games, and after back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and McNeese, the Tigers are set to face seven straight SEC opponents. Kentucky comes first this weekend, with Mississippi State and Auburn rounding out October.
That’s the backdrop for ESPN’s updated game-by-game projections, which now lean LSU’s way in several key matchups.
The Football Power Index, as ESPN describes it, is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
Before the season kicked off, the model had LSU projected for 8.4 wins, along with a 39.7 percent shot at the College Football Playoff. It also gave the Tigers a 3.5 percent chance to win the national championship.
After Week 5, those numbers have shifted slightly. LSU’s projected win total is now 8.5, while its College Football Playoff odds sit at 37.5 percent. The national title number has dipped to 2.3 percent, which still ranks ninth-best in the country according to the Football Power Index.
In Other News...
LSU Gets A Reassuring Injury Report Before Kentucky Game
LSU heads into its SEC matchup with Kentucky carrying the same kind of availability report it was expected to have, with five Tigers ruled out and no late surprises attached to the list. For a team trying to keep its focus on the conference grind, the news matters less for who is missing than for the fact that the absences were anticipated well in advance, leaving the Tigers with a clearer read on how they will line up.
Kentuckys report is a little more layered, with five players out and a mix of questionable and probable tags that could still alter the depth chart by kickoff. The most encouraging sign for the Wildcats is that Jason Patterson and Aaron Gates are not on the injury report at all and are expected to be available, which gives Kentucky some stability as it tries to navigate a shorter margin for error in an SEC game that already carries plenty of weight. [Read more 🡒]
Lane Kiffin Is Building An LSU Threat Ole Miss Can't Ignore
LSU is nearing the midpoint of its first season under Lane Kiffin, and the Tigers have already shown enough on defense to make the rest of the SEC pay attention. Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt has been among those encouraged by what LSU has done on that side of the ball, pointing to a pass rush and overall defensive profile that could keep the Tigers in the race for the SEC Championship as the schedule gets more demanding.
For a team with Kiffin now running the show, the early storyline has been a little different than the usual offensive fireworks associated with his name. LSUs defense has stood out so far, and that creates a different kind of threat for opponents, including Ole Miss, which knows the tougher stretch is still ahead for the Tigers. The real test now is whether that strong start holds up once LSU gets to the hardest part of the schedule. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Heads Into Kentucky With Major Injury Questions On Both Sides
LSUs injury picture keeps evolving as the Tigers get ready for Kentucky, and the list of unavailable players already includes several significant season-ending losses. Wide receiver Phillip Wright III, safety Dashawn Spears and linebacker Charles Ross are all done for the year, forcing LSU to keep reshuffling pieces on both sides of the ball while trying to maintain its footing in the SEC race.
Tight end Trey'Dez Green adds another layer of uncertainty, with his recovery timeline still unclear even as there is some hope he could return sooner than expected. In the meantime, LSU has been leaning on replacements like safety Tamarcus Cooley and linebacker Davhon Keys, and how well those fill-in roles hold up could shape what the Tigers look like against Kentucky and beyond. [Read more 🡒]