LSU Looks The Part But Its Playoff Path Is Still Dangerous

LSU may be the SEC’s hottest-looking team right now, but the playoff math still isn’t doing the Tigers any favors.

That’s the tension hanging over the league heading into the ninth week of the regular season. LSU has absolutely passed the eye test over the last two weeks, rolling through Mississippi State and Auburn with ease.

But if the College Football Playoff Committee is leaning harder on résumé than vibes, the Tigers are walking a narrow path. Under the pattern from the past two seasons, every at-large CFP team won at least 10 regular-season games.

If that holds, LSU can’t stumble in any of its four November games.

That pressure gets even sharper because LSU is one of seven SEC teams sitting with two losses. Alabama, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas all fit that bucket, while Georgia and Kentucky are the only league teams with just one loss and any real cushion left.

Among those seven, LSU is the only one without a win against one of the others. The Tigers have already lost to Kentucky and Ole Miss, which is why the upcoming game against Alabama looms so large. Beating a nine-win team would do real work for the body of work LSU needs to build.

The rest of the two-loss crowd has at least some notable wins inside that group. Florida has beaten Ole Miss and Texas.

Ole Miss has wins over LSU and Missouri. Texas owns victories against Ole Miss and Tennessee.

Alabama, Missouri and Tennessee each have one such win: Alabama over Kentucky, Missouri over Florida, Tennessee over Alabama.

There’s another wrinkle, too. Florida and Tennessee have both lost to South Carolina, Missouri has fallen to Mississippi State, and Texas has a loss to Oklahoma. So even within this crowded middle, the slippage is spreading.

Here’s how the SEC stacks up in four tiers entering the ninth week of the regular season:

TIER 1

1. GEORGIA (6-1): Open date; next up - Florida at Atlanta
2. KENTUCKY (7-1): Defeated Vanderbilt 34-17; next up - Open date
3. OLE MISS (5-2): Lost to Texas 34-27; next up - Auburn at home
4. LSU (6-2): Defeated Auburn 38-17; next up - Open date

The key thing here is how little margin separates the top of the league. If the SEC title game were played this Saturday, Kentucky would be the No. 1 seed.

Kentucky and Georgia are the only teams with fewer than two conference losses. Georgia could easily take on a second league defeat this week against Florida, while Ole Miss cannot afford a home loss to Auburn and still expect to stay in the CFP picture.

TIER 2

1. TENNESSEE (6-2): Lost to South Carolina 27-24; next up - Open date
2. ALABAMA (6-2): Defeated Texas A&M 31-20; next up - Open date
3. TEXAS (5-2): Defeated Ole Miss 34-27; next up - Mississippi State at home
4. FLORIDA (5-2): Open date; next up - Georgia at Atlanta

Texas has another must-win spot this week against a Mississippi team. A loss at home to Mississippi State would knock the Longhorns out of the legitimate CFP conversation. Florida, meanwhile, has a chance to make a major jump by taking down Georgia.

TIER 3

1. MISSOURI (5-2): Open date; next up - at Arkansas
2. OKLAHOMA (4-3): Defeated Mississippi State 23-15; next up - South Carolina at home
3. SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3): Defeated Tennessee 27-24; next up - at Oklahoma
4. AUBURN (4-3): Lost to LSU 38-17; next up - at Ole Miss

Missouri’s résumé still turns on that win over Florida, and not much else that screams national attention. If the Tigers lose at Arkansas, they’re out of the CFP mix.

South Carolina, for its part, gets another chance to keep the recent uptick going on the road against Oklahoma. Shane Beamer’s team is still fighting for his job.

TIER 4

1. MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-3): Lost to Oklahoma 23-15; next up - at Texas
2. TEXAS A&M (4-4): Lost to Alabama 31-20; next up - Open date
3. ARKANSAS (3-4): Open date; next up - Missouri at home
4. VANDERBILT (3-5): Lost to Kentucky 34-17; next up - Open date

At this level, the mission is simpler: get to six wins and bowl eligibility. That’s the only thing left on the table.

It’s hard to see either Arkansas or Vanderbilt getting three more victories. Mississippi State and Texas A&M at least need only two more.

And right now, Texas A&M stands as the SEC’s most disappointing team this season.

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