FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under win total for LSU's 2026 football season at 9.5 games, with the under currently favored at -154. While it might seem early to dive into win totals, especially with spring practice yet to start, that 9.5 mark does raise some eyebrows. After all, the Tigers have managed to hit 10 wins twice during Brian Kelly's tenure, even with less investment and a different coaching setup.
Now, let's break down LSU's 2026 schedule to see if that 9.5 line feels on point or off the mark.
The Three Tiers of LSU’s Schedule
Slam Dunks
- McNeese State, Louisiana Tech
These games are as close to guaranteed wins as you can get.
LSU should handle these matchups comfortably, even in a challenging year.
Likely Wins
- Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Clemson, Tennessee
The Tigers are expected to come out on top in these six games. While these teams are all formidable Power Four opponents, they each have noticeable weaknesses. Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky are adjusting to new coaches, suggesting they might need time before competing at the SEC's top level.
Clemson and Tennessee present tougher challenges, but both are facing significant questions at quarterback and have seen their rosters hit hard by the draft and transfer portal. These might be nail-biters, but if LSU plays to their potential, they should emerge victorious here.
Toss-Ups
- Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Texas
This is where things get interesting. All four teams made the College Football Playoff in 2025 and are poised for another strong season. Three return their starting quarterbacks, while Alabama has two promising options despite losing theirs.
Even with some roster shake-ups at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Alabama, these matchups are tough to predict. However, going 2-2 in this section seems like a reasonable expectation for the Tigers.
Recap
Vegas’s line hinges on whether LSU can navigate the regular season with just two losses. Texas, with its bolstered roster thanks to key transfer additions, is a likely candidate to hand LSU one of those losses. The second could come from Texas A&M, Alabama, or Ole Miss.
There's always a possibility of an upset from a "should-win" team, given the potential for some of them to rise to the occasion.
In the grand scheme, LSU's margin for error is slim if they want to surpass that 9.5 win total. With one of the highest-paid coaches and a heavily invested roster, expectations are high for a playoff run. Achieving that will require a standout performance from this new-look squad.
Ultimately, the win/loss projection suggests that Vegas sees LSU as a playoff contender. The Tigers have a shot, but it will take something special from this group to realize that potential.