Saturday’s LSU-Alabama showdown has all the ingredients of a playoff-pressure game, but one number keeps rising to the top: turnover margin.
No. 15 LSU welcomes No.
9 Alabama in a meeting of 6-2 teams trying to stay in the hunt, and on paper the two look awfully similar. The difference is what happens when the ball changes hands.
Alabama sits 11th nationally in turnover margin, while LSU is all the way down at 87th.
This is also the last annual meeting between the schools, with the SEC’s nine-game schedule ending the series for next season. Alabama has taken the last three matchups.
The Crimson Tide have built their edge through takeaways. They are plus-7 overall, with 19 takeaways and 12 giveaways, and their defense has forced at least one turnover in every game this season.
That total of 19 takeaways ranks third nationally, and Alabama’s 12 interceptions are tied for the SEC lead. The Tide also have seven fumble recoveries.
That production is no accident. Alabama’s defense opens every practice with a takeaway drill, and the results have shown up on Saturdays. The first nine takeaways turned into 45 points, and the Crimson Tide have scored at least four defensive touchdowns.
The biggest swings have come when Alabama turns defense into immediate offense. It forced four turnovers against both South Carolina and Mississippi State.
In the two SEC losses, the Tide broke even against Georgia and then lost the turnover battle 4-2 at Tennessee. Most recently, Alabama forced three turnovers against Texas A&M, including a fourth-and-1 fumble that helped set up the go-ahead touchdown in a 31-20 win.
LSU’s issue is the opposite. The Tigers have given it away 11 times, with eight interceptions and three lost fumbles, leaving them at minus-2 despite an offense that ranks sixth nationally in yards. LSU is also 11th in the SEC in turnover margin.
Those mistakes have shown up in the losses. LSU threw a red-zone interception with 59 seconds left in a 32-24 loss at Ole Miss, then coughed it up twice without forcing a turnover in the 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky.
The giveaways have not been isolated. LSU had four turnovers in a 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech and went through a stretch of six straight games with an interception. Even so, the defense has limited the damage, allowing just 13 points off those 11 giveaways.
Former Alabama coach Nick Saban said the turnover problem is the thing most likely to keep LSU from a championship run.
That puts Saturday’s game in a clear frame. Alabama’s defense is built to attack exactly that weakness, and LSU will be dealing with the toughest ball-security test it has seen all year.
“You make your own breaks,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said about his defense after the loss to Georgia.
The Tide’s defense has not been dominant across the board - it ranks 41st nationally in total defense and 86th against the pass - but it has made a habit of creating extra possessions. That matters because Alabama is 4-0 when it wins the turnover battle. LSU has won that battle only once, in a 35-6 victory over Texas A&M.
Both teams have also had their worst turnover margin in losses. LSU’s minus-2 came in the Kentucky overtime defeat, and Alabama’s minus-2 came in its 26-10 loss at Tennessee. Neither team has won when finishing worse than minus-1.
Offensively, there should be points. LSU averages 40.1 per game, and Alabama averages 38.3. LSU also leads the SEC in total offense and total defense, and it has won all six of its games by 21 points or more.
So the matchup comes back to the same question: which defense can create the extra possession? In a game with two high-scoring teams, that may be the difference.
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