LSU Men’s Basketball Faces Crucial Stretch With March Madness Hopes on Life Support
It’s been a minute since LSU men’s basketball made any real noise in March. Their last NCAA Tournament appearance came in 2022 - a quick exit - and before that, the Sweet 16 run in 2019 was the last time the Tigers flirted with national relevance.
LSU football and baseball may be the big-ticket sports in Baton Rouge, but don’t count this hoops team out just yet. There’s still a path - narrow as it may be - to the Big Dance.
Let’s break it down.
To punch a ticket to March Madness, a team either needs to win its conference tournament or earn an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee. And while a perfect record isn’t necessary, a strong résumé is. Teams with “mid” records - hovering around .500 - can and do get in, provided they’ve stacked up enough quality wins and avoided bad losses.
Right now, LSU’s shot at winning the SEC outright is slim. The Tigers are sitting at 2-7 in conference play, and the road ahead doesn’t get any easier with eight straight SEC matchups on deck. To even be in the conversation for a tournament berth, LSU would need to go on a tear - we’re talking dominant performances the rest of the way.
Still, the season isn’t dead.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee - made up of 12 athletic directors, conference officials, and former coaches - doesn’t just look at win-loss records. They go deeper.
Much deeper. The committee evaluates NET rankings, strength of schedule, quality wins and losses, how teams perform late in the season, and even where games are played.
A one-point road win over a tough opponent? That’s gold.
A 20-point blowout over a bottom-tier team at home? Not nearly as valuable.
The committee also doesn’t care about margin of victory or a program’s past March Madness history. This is all about what a team has done this season.
So what does that mean for LSU?
To have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid, the Tigers need to stack up two or three Quad 1 wins - the most valuable tier in the committee’s eyes - and avoid any Quad 3 or 4 losses. That’s a tall order, but not impossible.
Their upcoming slate includes matchups that could move the needle: Arkansas at home, No. 25 Tennessee on the road, plus road games against Texas, Ole Miss, and Auburn.
They’ll also host Texas A&M, currently the top team in the SEC.
Even if the Tigers win ugly - buzzer beaters, grind-it-out slugfests, whatever it takes - those Ws would still count in the eyes of the committee. Style points don’t matter. Wins do.
But they’ll need to do it short-handed.
Top scorer Dedan Thomas Jr. is currently sidelined with a foot injury, and Jalen Reed - a key returner - has been out since November with an Achilles injury. That puts the pressure squarely on players like Max Mackinnon, who’s averaging 14.6 points per game, and junior forward Mike Nwoko, who dropped 21 in a statement win over South Carolina. These are the guys who’ll need to carry the load, especially on the road against teams with more firepower.
And the firepower is real. Arkansas’s Darius Acuff Jr., a freshman from Michigan, is putting up 20.3 points per game and is one of several SEC players projected to make the leap to the NBA.
Florida, Kentucky, and Arkansas all rank among ESPN’s top 10 programs with the most NBA prospects. LSU has already taken losses to those three, but they’ll get another shot at Arkansas.
The rest of the season is an uphill climb - no way around it. LSU is the underdog in just about every remaining matchup.
But there’s still a sliver of hope. And in March, that’s sometimes all you need.
Head coach Matt McMahon is now in his fourth year at the helm, holding a 57-61 overall record and a rough 15-47 mark in SEC play. He’s yet to guide the Tigers to a tournament berth, and the pressure is mounting. LSU’s athletic department has shown in the past that it’s not afraid to make changes when expectations aren’t being met.
This stretch run could define McMahon’s tenure. It could also determine whether LSU’s season ends in early March - or gets a second life in the madness that follows.
The margin for error? Razor-thin.
The opportunity? Still alive.