LSU’s trip to Ole Miss this week is loaded with more than just the Lane Kiffin storyline. Yes, Kiffin is headed back to face the school he left in dramatic fashion last fall, and that alone makes this one of the most talked-about games on the 2026 college football schedule. But the real weight of the matchup comes from what it could do to both teams’ playoff hopes.
This is the kind of game that can redraw the College Football Playoff picture in a hurry. If LSU and Ole Miss are both sitting at 10 wins, the assumption is they’re in. That makes this meeting a major swing point for both programs, with national title implications attached to the result as well.
The betting market reflects just how much is riding on it. LSU is being given a 59.4% chance to reach the College Football Playoff, while Ole Miss sits at 35%.
The next two weeks could define LSU’s season. After the road game in Oxford, the Tigers come home for Texas A&M in Week 4, giving them back-to-back matchups against top-10 opponents. That stretch leaves LSU with very little room to breathe.
A win over Ole Miss would give LSU some cushion heading into the Texas A&M game. Even if the Tigers lose to A&M after that, they’d still likely be sitting at one loss when November arrives.
But if LSU drops this one, the Texas A&M matchup starts to feel far more urgent. LSU can’t really afford to finish September with two losses, especially with what’s waiting later in the schedule.
Ole Miss is in a similarly precarious spot. The Rebels are No. 20 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, and the power ratings don’t exactly paint them as a true national title threat. A loss here would immediately raise the temperature around the rest of their season.
That’s because the road doesn’t get any easier. Ole Miss heads to Florida next week, and there’s a real chance Pete Golding’s team would go in as an underdog. Beyond that, the Rebels still have Texas and Georgia on the schedule, the top-two teams in the AP Poll.
So the math is pretty simple. The winner walks away with a clearer route to the College Football Playoff and some breathing room.
The loser? That team can probably afford only one more defeat the rest of the way with such a brutal schedule ahead.
FanDuel lists LSU’s odds to make the College Football Playoff at -165.
In Other News...
LSU Just Exposed A Problem That Could Cost Them At Ole Miss
LSU got the result it wanted against Louisiana Tech, but the tape offered a less comfortable message heading into a much bigger test. The Tigers scored 45 points and controlled the game on the scoreboard, yet the offensive line had real trouble creating push in the middle of the run game and keeping the quarterback clean, a combination that led to five sacks and too many negative plays.
Those issues matter a lot more with Ole Miss next on the schedule. Pro Football Focus grading backed up what showed up on the field, with only two LSU starters on the offensive line finishing above a 70, and the weakest spots coming at guard and tackle. Before a trip to face a defense that can turn pressure into momentum quickly, LSU has some obvious fixing to do up front, and the margin for error only gets thinner from here. [Read more 🡒]
Ed Orgeron Is Back Around LSU But One Ole Miss Question Looms
Ed Orgeron is back around LSU, easing into his role as a special assistant for recruiting and defense after a health issue kept him away from preseason practices and the first two games of the season. Lane Kiffin said Orgeron is doing better and has been spending parts of his weekdays at the football operations building, a welcome sign for a program that has clearly missed his presence in the building.
What remains unsettled is whether Orgeron will be with the Tigers when they head to Ole Miss this week. Kiffin has not confirmed that travel plans yet, and he also did not spell out the nature of the health issue, leaving LSU with a little uncertainty even as one of its most recognizable voices gets back into the routine. [Read more 🡒]
LSU May Have Found The Mismatch This Offense Needed
For a Tigers offense still looking for a steady rhythm early in the season, LSUs 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech offered a promising answer in Trey'Dez Green. The tight end was featured more heavily in the game plan, and it showed in a performance that included six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown, giving the offense a different kind of problem for defenses to sort out.
Lane Kiffin made it clear before the season that Green could be more than a complementary piece, and LSU finally leaned into that versatility in a way that mattered. If this becomes a regular part of the offense, the Tigers may have found a matchup edge that can stress coverages and create room elsewhere, even if the bigger test is still ahead. [Read more 🡒]