Week 6 didn’t just shuffle the College Football Playoff picture. For a few teams, it slammed the door.
LSU, Oregon and Florida each took losses that badly undercut whatever momentum they had built, and all three now face a narrow path if they want to keep their Playoff hopes alive. The margin for error is gone. In some cases, it may already be too late.
LSU’s stumble at Kentucky was the kind that changes the shape of a season. The Tigers had already dropped a road game to Ole Miss, and this one made the climb even steeper. ESPN’s FPI now gives LSU just a 16.1% shot at the Playoff, placing it behind Tennessee, Kentucky and Ole Miss, while leaving it basically even with Missouri in the SEC hierarchy.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief. LSU still has Alabama and Texas on the docket, plus a road trip to Tennessee. Even getting to 9-3 now looks like a serious challenge after Lane Kiffin’s team opened 4-2 in his debut season on the Bayou.
Oregon’s situation looks grim in a different way. The Ducks were already carrying the weight of a damaging loss to Oklahoma State, then followed it with another defeat, this time against UCLA.
Because that second loss came in conference play, it hit even harder. ESPN’s FPI has Oregon at 9.8% for the Playoff, and that number puts the Ducks behind not just UCLA, but also Nebraska, Iowa, USC, Northwestern and Wisconsin among the Big Ten’s third-spot contenders.
There’s almost no room left for slipups. Oregon hosts Nebraska this weekend, then gets Northwestern before a trip to Ohio State. The Ducks have been wildly inconsistent, and there’s little reason to think they’re about to suddenly iron everything out.
Florida’s slide has been even more jarring. After losing to Missouri, the Gators followed it with a home loss to South Carolina.
Between those two games, Florida allowed 83 points and 953 yards. Jon Sumrall’s team was probably never all that close to the Playoff picture, even after the Ole Miss win, but a 38-19 loss to South Carolina leaves Florida with only a 2.6% chance to get there, per FPI.
And the schedule only makes things worse. Texas and Georgia are next on the slate, which leaves Florida far more likely to fall to 4-4 than to claw its way back into the race.
The first four games were an overachievement. The next stretch could be a full-on nightmare that drags UF back toward average.
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