Oregon’s playoff picture is messy, and that’s exactly why Saturday’s 17-14 win over Nebraska mattered even if it didn’t bump the Ducks back into the AP Top 25.
Dan Lanning’s team is still alive in the College Football Playoff race, but it now sits in an awkward spot: Oregon is the only unranked team among six two-loss contenders. The Ducks got 79 points in the latest AP poll, the most of any unranked team outside Oklahoma State, which beat Oregon 39-31 in Week 2.
That leaves Oregon trying to measure its case against five ranked two-loss SEC teams: No. 13 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC), No.
18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC), No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC), No.
20 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 22 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC).
On paper, the Ducks’ schedule strength and résumé keep them in the conversation. In reality, the situation is more complicated than the rankings suggest.
Oregon’s defeats to No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0 Big Ten) and Oklahoma State knocked it out of the poll.
The Massey Ratings, though, tell a more favorable story. They have the Ducks at No. 16 nationally in strength of schedule, and Oregon’s wins include a road victory over then-No.
12 USC plus home wins over Nebraska and No. 21 Boise State (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12).
If Portland State is removed, every opponent Oregon has played this season has received AP Top 25 votes at some point. That doesn’t erase the losses to UCLA and Oklahoma State, but it does show why the Ducks are still hanging around the playoff discussion.
Texas may be the most dangerous team standing in Oregon’s way. The Longhorns own wins over No.
3 Ohio State and No. 11 Tennessee, and Oregon’s own path to building a comparable case runs through Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten).
The Ducks visit the Horseshoe on Nov. 7, and a win there would go a long way toward matching Texas’ profile.
Alabama’s route looks cleaner. The Crimson Tide’s two losses came against Tennessee and No.
5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), and Massey has them at No. 10.
Florida also has a strong argument thanks to wins over Texas and No. 4 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC), but back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC) by a combined 47 points are hard to overlook.
LSU and Missouri sit behind Oregon in the Massey ratings - No. 18 and 23, respectively - even though both are ranked ahead of the Ducks in the AP poll. LSU has losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC), while Missouri has fallen to Ole Miss and Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC).
There’s also a built-in squeeze coming for the SEC crowd. With Alabama and LSU set to meet in Baton Rouge on Nov.
7, Texas and Missouri scheduled to play in Columbia, and Texas then heading to LSU a week later, at least two of these five teams are guaranteed to take a third loss before the year ends. Texas still has Ole Miss left, LSU still has trips to Tennessee and Georgia, and Kentucky remains in Florida’s path.
That leaves Oregon with a simple formula and little margin for error: win.
The second half starts Saturday on the road at Illinois (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten), and every remaining game has the feel of a must-win. The Ducks then get No. 24 Northwestern (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at home before the trip to Ohio State.
After that, the rest of the slate softens some. Michigan (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten), Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) and Washington (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) have combined for a 2-9 conference record.
The SEC may keep creating openings. Oregon has to be the team ready to take them, and justify that preseason No. 2 AP ranking along the way.
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LSU Fans Should Keep An Eye On Bryce Underwood's Michigan Drama
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Underwood has not entered the transfer portal, but the chatter around his future is already building, and LSU is among the programs being mentioned as a possible landing spot if he chooses to move on. Miami, Texas Tech, Georgia and Kentucky are also in the mix, which means this could become a national recruiting and roster watch for the Tigers if the situation keeps trending in this direction. [Read more 🡒]