Saturday night in Death Valley brings the kind of Week 1 spotlight that gets picked apart from every angle, with LSU and Clemson meeting in a Tigers vs. Tigers opener that already has plenty of attention attached to it.
The SP+ model is leaning toward the home team. Its forecast has LSU winning 28-18, which works out to an expected margin of 9.8 points. It also gives LSU a 73 percent chance to win outright.
SP+ is built as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” designed to identify “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.” So far this season, it has gone 6-2 against the spread, a 75.0 win percentage.
The market is also backing LSU. The Tigers are listed as 10.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total set at 50.5 points. On the moneyline, LSU sits at -410, while Clemson is at +315.
A lot of the intrigue centers on the quarterbacks. Christopher Vizzina steps into the Clemson offense with limited experience, but he showed some upside in his lone start a year ago against SMU, when he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. He’ll have help from a talented receiving group that can challenge LSU’s secondary with speed and agility.
On the other side, Sam Leavitt has the tools to test Clemson’s back end tacklers, too, but the bigger question is whether LSU can get its ground game going again after ranking among the worst nationally last season. If Clemson can slow the early drives and force third-and-long situations, the game can stay tight, at least for a while.
College Football HQ’s call is LSU to win and cover.
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