With head coach Jason Candle off to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres heading to Syracuse, Toledo enters bowl season in a state of flux. The Rockets aren't just down a playcaller-they're down both.
That’s not a small thing. Losing the architects on both sides of the ball leaves a leadership vacuum that’s hard to fill overnight, especially heading into a matchup with an ACC opponent.
Still, Toledo’s not waving the white flag. The roster remains largely intact, with only a few defensive starters opting out.
And let’s not forget: this is a program that knocked off Pitt in last year’s bowl game. They’ve been here before, and they’ve proven they can hang with Power Five talent when it counts.
Up Front: Size, Disruption, and a Key Absence
Toledo’s defensive front is anchored by Martez Poynter, a 6-foot-4, 294-pound force in the middle. He’s not just a space-eater-he’s a disruptor.
With 8 tackles for loss this season, Poynter has shown he can beat interior linemen with quickness and technique, not just brute strength. He’ll be paired with Esean Carter, and together they’ll try to slow down a Louisville run game that looked sharp against Kentucky.
The edge is where things get tricky. Micah Davis, the team’s sack leader, has opted out and entered the transfer portal.
That’s a big hole. Davis brought 35 total pressures this year-production that’s hard to replace.
Anthony Dunn and Louce Julian will try to pick up the slack. Dunn, in particular, has been active with 13 QB hurries, but he’ll need to elevate his game to make up for Davis’ absence.
Keep an eye on Jeremiah Peters, too-he’s expected to see more snaps and could be a swing factor on the edge.
Linebackers: The Heartbeat of the Defense
Toledo’s defense gets stronger the deeper you go, and it starts with K’Von Sherman. The JUCO transfer has been a revelation this year, leading the team with 85 tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss.
He plays fast, physical, and downhill-exactly the kind of linebacker who can give Louisville problems. Sherman thrives at shooting gaps and disrupting plays before they can develop.
If he gets rolling early, it could be a long day for the Cards’ backfield. Don’t be surprised if he ends up with double-digit tackles.
Next to Sherman, Langston Long will step in for Chris D’Appolonia, who’s also hit the portal. Long started their last game and held his own, tallying six tackles and a TFL.
He’ll need to stay disciplined against a Louisville offense that may be digging deep into its running back rotation again. Toledo's run defense ranks in the top 10 nationally, and this linebacker duo will be central to maintaining that standard.
Secondary: Strength on the Outside, a Question in the Middle
On the back end, Toledo boasts one of the more underrated cornerback tandems in the country. Avery Smith and Andre Fuller have been lockdown guys all year.
Both are physical in man coverage and smart in zone, and they’ve each forced 12 incompletions while holding opponents to sub-50% completion rates. Fuller brings more size at 6-2, 200 pounds, but the production has been nearly identical.
These two don’t give up much.
Nasir Bowers will handle slot duties and likely draw the assignment on Caullin Lacy, Louisville’s top receiving threat. Bowers has shown he’s up for the challenge-he had a highlight-reel interception against Kentucky earlier this season and plays with the kind of confidence you need to survive inside.
But the real star of the secondary-and arguably the entire team-is safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. He’s one of the best safeties in the nation and will be heading to the Senior Bowl after this game.
McNeil-Warren is the total package. He can play in the box, he can cover, and he’s a turnover machine.
He’s allowed just six catches all season, has six pass breakups, and has forced three fumbles. There’s a reason NFL scouts are circling his name.
Unfortunately for Toledo, they’ll be without Braden Awls, who led the team in interceptions. He’s entered the portal, and his absence leaves a noticeable void.
Nicholas Thompson is expected to step in, but he’s struggled in coverage this season. That’s a potential pressure point for Louisville to exploit, especially if they can isolate him in one-on-one matchups.
Final Thoughts
Toledo may be short on coaches, but they’re not short on talent. This defense still has plenty of pieces that can cause problems-especially up front and in the secondary.
The key will be whether the Rockets can stay disciplined and cohesive without their usual playcallers on the sidelines. If they can, don’t be surprised if this one turns into another gritty, upset-minded performance from a Toledo team that’s made a habit of punching above its weight.