The Las Vegas Raiders are staring down a franchise-defining decision this offseason, and it’s one that pits potential against proven production. On one side, you’ve got Lamar Jackson - a two-time MVP still in his prime.
On the other, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza - a red-hot draft prospect fresh off one of the most decorated seasons in college football history. The question: Do you go all-in on a known superstar with a hefty price tag, or roll the dice on a rookie with sky-high upside and a cost-controlled contract?
Let’s break it down.
The Lamar Jackson Factor
There’s no mystery to what Lamar Jackson brings to the table. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the NFL - a quarterback who can change the game with both his arm and his legs, and who already has an MVP trophy on his shelf twice. He’s been the engine of Baltimore’s offense for years, and when healthy, he’s a nightmare for defenses.
But that last part - when healthy - is part of the equation here. Since the start of the 2021 season, Jackson has missed 11 games, including playoffs, due to various injuries.
This past season, he was limited to 13 starts because of hamstring and back issues. That’s a real concern for any team thinking about building around him long-term.
Then there’s the financial side. Jackson signed a five-year deal back in 2023 reportedly worth up to $260 million, with $185 million guaranteed.
Now, he’s looking for a new extension. That’s a massive commitment, especially for a team like the Raiders that’s still searching for stability at the quarterback position - and just about everywhere else.
Still, there’s a reason his name is being floated in connection with Las Vegas. According to reports, Raiders minority owner Tom Brady might be intrigued by the idea of bringing Jackson to town.
Brady allegedly believed the 2025 Raiders were better than their 3-win record suggested. If he sees Jackson as the missing piece, you can bet he’ll make his voice heard in the front office.
Enter Fernando Mendoza
Now let’s talk about the other option - and it’s a compelling one. Fernando Mendoza just wrapped up a season for the ages.
After transferring from Cal to Indiana, he exploded onto the national scene, throwing 41 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. He led the Hoosiers to an undefeated season, a national title, and a Heisman Trophy - all in one year.
That’s rare air, the kind of résumé that puts you in the same conversation as Joe Burrow and Cam Newton.
Mel Kiper Jr. didn’t mince words in his latest mock draft, calling Mendoza “a no-brainer to begin Round 1.” He praised Mendoza’s ball placement and overall polish, and projected him as the centerpiece of a new-look Raiders offense alongside running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers. That’s a young core with serious potential.
And here’s the kicker: Mendoza comes with a rookie contract. That’s gold for a team trying to build through the draft and reset its cap sheet. First-year head coaches and general managers often prefer to hitch their wagon to a young quarterback they can develop from Day 1 - especially when the alternative is a veteran with a massive salary and an injury history.
The Decision Ahead
This isn’t just about talent. It’s about timing, philosophy, and roster construction.
Do the Raiders want to win right now with a proven star like Jackson, knowing the cost and risk that comes with him? Or do they want to reset with a rookie like Mendoza, who offers long-term upside and financial flexibility?
There’s no easy answer - but there’s a lot riding on it.
With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Raiders control the board. Whether they swing for the fences with Lamar Jackson or build from the ground up with Fernando Mendoza, this decision will shape the future of the franchise for years to come.