Pat Kelsey, known for his analytical approach to coaching, might need to reconsider his aversion to the mid-range jump shot. Louisville, currently ranked No. 24, took a tough loss against No.
18 North Carolina, marking their second defeat in three games. With only 2.7 percent of their shots coming from mid-range, it might be time for a strategic shift.
In the recent game, Louisville attempted 39 three-pointers, slightly above their average of 32.9 per game. While the math favors threes over twos, the Cardinals' offense has become predictable, leading to empty possessions. As March Madness approaches, this predictability could be their downfall if they don’t diversify their offensive strategy.
Louisville's Offensive Predictability: A March Concern
Not every opponent will have a rim protector like UNC's Henri Veesaar, but many can mimic the Tar Heels' effective game plan. UNC didn’t push Louisville off the three-point line but contested nearly all their shots.
The Cardinals shot just 31.4 percent on above-the-break threes, and their attempts from the corner dropped significantly. The corner three is crucial for efficiency, and UNC's strategy made Louisville's attempts far more challenging.
UNC's defense funneled Louisville’s drives toward Veesaar, who, despite not blocking any shots, disrupted their efficiency at the rim. Louisville shot a mere 56.3 percent at the rim and struggled with their paint presence, going 2-8. While UNC boasts strong rim defense, Louisville’s reluctance to take mid-range shots played right into their hands.
Mike Brown Jr. and his teammates frequently passed up open mid-range opportunities, opting instead to challenge Veesaar at the rim. Brown ended the night with 24 points on 9-25 shooting, and the team managed only 12 two-point field goals, barely getting to the free-throw line.
Adapting Kelsey's Strategy for Success
Kelsey’s analytics-driven style has its merits, as Louisville ranks 12th in offensive rating. However, success with a three-point-heavy approach requires versatility.
Teams like Nate Oats’ have thrived with either five-out spacing or dynamic big men who can draw defenses away from the rim. Currently, Louisville lacks these elements with their bigs, Sananda Fru and Aly Khalifa.
Even Oats’ successful teams included players like Aaron Estrada, who effectively used mid-range shots as a strategic counterpunch. For Louisville, developing a similar option could be crucial. Mikel Brown Jr. might be the key to adding this dimension if he can incorporate mid-range shots into his game.
As the tournament nears, Louisville needs to find that balance. Embracing a bit of mid-range play could be the tweak that makes their offense less predictable and more effective under pressure.