With the 2025 college football season officially in the books-Indiana capped it off by taking down Miami in the national championship-it’s time for the spotlight to shift to college hoops. March might still be a few weeks out, but the road to Indianapolis is already heating up. And when the nets finally come down in April, it’ll be one team standing tall as the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball national champion.
Florida enters the stretch run as the reigning champ, fresh off a memorable title run last spring. But this year’s field is wide open, with a mix of seasoned contenders and rising threats looking to make their mark. Let’s break down the frontrunners, the value picks, and a few long shots who could shake up the bracket come tournament time.
The Favorites
Michigan (+440)
The Wolverines are riding high as the current title favorite, and there’s good reason for it.
In just Year 1 under Dusty May, Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. Now, with a deeper roster and more experience, they're eyeing their first national title since 1989.
The pieces are there: a balanced attack, a coach who knows how to win in March, and a team that’s been battle-tested early. If Michigan keeps trending upward, they’ll be a tough out in any region.
Arizona (+500)
Arizona has spent nearly half the season perched at No. 1 in the AP Top 25, and that consistency is reflected in their odds.
The Wildcats have the length, athleticism, and scoring punch to go toe-to-toe with anyone. They’ve been one of the most complete teams in the country, and with a strong showing in conference play, they’ll enter March with confidence-and likely a top seed.
Houston (+1100)
The Cougars are no strangers to deep tournament runs under Kelvin Sampson, and they might be even better this time around.
Since dropping a tough one to Tennessee in Vegas, Houston has rattled off 11 straight wins. Veterans Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan bring poise and leadership, while Joseph Tugler anchors the defense as one of the most disruptive players in the sport.
Add in freshman Kingston Flemings-who’s playing beyond his years-and this team has the right mix of experience and upside. If the tournament tipped off today, Houston would be a popular pick to win it all.
Duke (+1100) and UConn (+1200) round out the top five, both with the talent and coaching to make deep runs. UConn, in particular, has the pedigree after recent success, while Duke remains a perennial threat in March.
Teams with Value
Florida (+1500)
Don’t sleep on the defending champs.
Florida might not have a go-to closer like Walter Clayton Jr. this time around, but they’re still a gritty, physical squad that knows how to win in March. Coach Todd Golden has built a team that leans on its frontcourt strength and depth.
Xaivian Lee has been stepping up in big spots-he just dropped 20 in a road win at Vanderbilt-while Thomas Haugh is playing at an All-American level. Rueben Chinyelu doesn’t get the national love he deserves, but he’s a difference-maker on both ends.
This team has the DNA to make another run.
BYU (+2500)
BYU might not have the tournament pedigree, but this year’s squad looks different.
The Cougars feature one of the best trios in the country: AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and Robert Wright III. Dybantsa is a projected top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and has played his way into National Player of the Year conversations.
Even after a recent loss to Texas Tech, BYU has the tools to regroup and make a run. They’ve never been to a Final Four-but this might be their best shot yet.
Intriguing Long Shots
Kentucky (+8000)
Yes, the Wildcats have had a rocky season.
But don’t count them out just yet. They’ve won three straight, including a gutsy road win over Tennessee and a buzzer-beater against LSU.
Losing Jaland Lowe for the season hurts, but Otega Oweh-the SEC’s Preseason Player of the Year-has the talent to carry the load. Jayden Quaintance, an Arizona State transfer, has only played in four games, but when healthy, he’s a defensive anchor.
Kentucky’s path won’t be easy, but if they get hot at the right time, they’re a dangerous bracket buster.
Louisville (+6500)
The Cardinals were one of last season’s best turnaround stories under Pat Kelsey.
This year’s been more up-and-down-they started 11-2 but have dropped three of their last five to fall to .500 in ACC play. Their biggest question mark is the health of freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who’s been sidelined for over a month.
When he’s on the floor, he looks like one of the best point guards in the country. Louisville still has seven games left against Quad 1 opponents, so there’s time to build a resume.
If Brown returns, this is a team that could sneak into the second weekend-and maybe beyond.
Kansas (+4000)
Let’s be honest: Kansas probably isn’t the team to beat this year.
But they do have Darryn Peterson, and in March, that can be enough. When healthy, Peterson is one of the most dynamic scorers in the country.
The issue? He’s only played 10 games due to hamstring issues, and in most of those, he’s been on a minutes limit.
Still, if he’s right by tournament time, Kansas becomes a whole different animal. Guards win in March-and Peterson has the kind of game that can carry a team.
Odds Breakdown - 2026 NCAA Tournament
Here’s a snapshot of the current title odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Michigan: +440
- Arizona: +500
- Houston: +1100
- Duke: +1100
- Connecticut: +1200
- Florida: +1500
- Purdue: +1500
- Illinois, Iowa State: +2000
- Gonzaga: +2200
- BYU: +2500
- Alabama: +3000
- Arkansas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Michigan State: +3500
- Nebraska, Kansas, Virginia: +4000
- **St.
John's**: +5000
- Louisville: +6500
- Kentucky: +8000
- North Carolina, Tennessee, Iowa: +10000
- SMU, NC State, Villanova, Saint Louis: +15000
- Clemson, Wisconsin, UCLA, Miami, Georgia, Auburn, Saint Mary’s, Utah State: +20000
- Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, TCU, Syracuse, Indiana, Missouri, Ole Miss, San Diego State, West Virginia, UCF, Creighton, Virginia Tech, USC, Baylor: +30000
- McNeese, Boise State, LSU, Butler, Memphis, High Point, Yale, Oklahoma, George Mason, UC San Diego, Oklahoma State, Dayton, VCU, Minnesota, UC Irvine, Wake Forest, Miami (OH): +50000
Final Takeaway
The top of the board is loaded with elite programs, and the usual suspects are circling. But as we’ve seen time and time again, March is about more than just the blue bloods. It’s about who’s peaking at the right time, who’s healthy, and who can handle the pressure when everything’s on the line.
Whether it’s Michigan finally breaking through, Houston finishing what it started, or a team like BYU or Florida making another run, this year’s tournament promises to be wide open-and wildly entertaining. Buckle up.