Josh Pate didn’t exactly whisper it: Louisville’s Week 3 matchup with SMU could shape the ACC race and, by extension, the Cardinals’ College Football Playoff path.
That’s the kind of spotlight Jeff Brohm’s team has been chasing after a busy offseason in the Transfer Portal. Louisville brought in more than 31 transfers and also managed to keep key pieces such as Isaac Brown, Antonio Watts, AJ Green and others from walking out the door. That has the Cardinals sitting in the conversation as a playoff dark horse, with fans already scanning the schedule for the landmines.
One of the biggest is obvious. Louisville and SMU meet in Week 3, and Pate put that game at the top of his list of the six most underrated games in 2026.
“They play each other in week 3, and you are asking yourself, is this going to be a one-bid league or a multi-bid league?” stated Pate. “Well, the result of that game and what the winner does the rest of the year could go a long way in answering that.”
Pate has long been one of Brohm’s more vocal supporters in media circles, and he made sure this one got the attention it deserves. The stakes are easy to see. Both Louisville and SMU are eyeing the ACC title and a spot in the 2027 College Football Playoffs, and the winner of this early showdown would get a major lift.
The numbers back up how close this race looks. SMU is listed at +700 to win the ACC title, while Louisville sits at +750. If the Cardinals open 3-0 with wins over Ole Miss and SMU, their playoff case suddenly gets a lot louder.
“Look at the respective schedules after week 3. Neither of these teams play Miami in the regular season.
Neither of these teams play Clemson in the regular season," stated Pate. "So, there is a distinct possibility if either of them or both of them win their Week 1 game, and the winner of this game comes out at 3-0, you are looking at a bona fide playoff team contender at that point.”
Miami tends to dominate the ACC conversation, but Pate’s message was clear: Louisville vs. SMU in Week 3 is a game with real College Football Playoff implications.
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The betting market has noticed, too, with Louisville sitting near the top tier of the conference conversation behind Miami and SMU. The schedule helps fuel that optimism, since the Cardinals avoid Miami, Clemson and Virginia, and get SMU and Pitt at home, but the first few weeks could tell the real story. With SMU waiting in Week 3 and a roster still being sorted out after 32 transfers, Louisville is suddenly carrying the kind of expectations that make September feel a lot bigger. [Read more 🡒]