Louisville still has work to do on the field tonight at North Carolina, but the Cardinals also need the rest of the ACC to cooperate if they want a shot at Charlotte’s final conference title game.
The cleanest path starts with Louisville taking care of business in Chapel Hill. The Cardinals enter at 6-3 overall and 4-2 in league play, and a win keeps them moving forward in the race. But the scoreboard-watching matters just as much, because several other results could shape the ACC picture by the end of the day.
The biggest result Louisville wants is Wake Forest losing at SMU. The Deacons are 5-1, the Mustangs 5-2, and that noon game on ESPN carries top priority for the Cardinals.
Right behind that is Duke at Miami. Louisville needs the Blue Devils to fall out of the race, and a Miami win would help do exactly that.
Duke comes in at 4-2, while the Hurricanes are unbeaten at 6-0. That one also kicks at noon, on ABC.
There’s another game worth watching too: Georgia Tech at Clemson. Louisville would like to see Clemson take an ACC loss either in this matchup or next week against Duke. The Tigers are 4-2, while Georgia Tech is 1-5, and that game starts at 12:30 on CW.
Even if the afternoon doesn’t break perfectly, Louisville still has a route if it keeps winning. The simplest version is straightforward: win the final three games, and the Cardinals stay in the hunt. If they run the table, Jeff Brohm’s team would put itself into the playoff picture and, unless Wake Forest wins out over SMU, Georgia Tech and Duke while Miami also wins out, Louisville would get into the conference championship.
Put even more simply, Louisville has to win out, and then either Wake Forest has to drop one game or Miami has to lose twice. Miami still has Virginia Tech and Boston College after Duke.
There’s also a more complicated path that could still get the Cardinals to Charlotte. If Louisville wins its two remaining conference games but loses to Kentucky, it would finish 8-4 overall and 7-2 in the league.
For that to work, SMU would still need to beat Wake Forest, while Wake Forest would then need to beat Duke and Georgia Tech, and SMU would also need to beat Stanford. That would create a three-way tie for second.
And then the head-to-head results would make things messy in a hurry.
Wake Forest beat Louisville, 30-27.
Louisville beat SMU, 41-31.
SMU would have beaten Wake Forest.
That could leave the ACC in complete chaos, with all three teams sitting at 7-2 and Clemson possibly in the mix as well. The Tigers play only eight conference games, are 4-2 right now, and still have Georgia Tech and Duke before ending with South Carolina. If Clemson finishes 6-2, it would only add to the tie for second place and send things to the “Team Success Ranking.”
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Louisville Gets A Timely Boost For Its Must Win UNC Trip
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The timing matters, too, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. local time in a game Louisville can hardly afford to waste. After a stretch without one of its top pass-catching options, the Cardinals will be looking to see how quickly McCoy can slot back in and help steady an attack that needs every available weapon on the road. [Read more 🡒]
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For Louisville, the bigger question is how it handles a tougher environment against an opponent that has already been tested. Both coaches have weighed in on the matchup, and Memphis injury situation adds another layer to watch as the game approaches. It is the kind of early-season meeting that can reveal more than the record suggests, especially for a Louisville team still trying to establish its identity away from home. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville Faces A Road Test That Could Reshape The ACC Race
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North Carolina, meanwhile, enters at 5-4 with a defense that has been one of its strengths, which should make this a useful measuring stick for both sides. For Louisville, the key questions are familiar ones at this stage of the season: can the run game create balance, and can the pass rush get enough heat on the quarterback to make the Tar Heels uncomfortable in protection? [Read more 🡒]