Week 1 usually opens with a bunch of mismatched games and betting lines that look steep for a reason. Most teams are using the first weekend as a tune-up, which is why true upset chances are hard to find. Still, a few spots stand out, and the card offers at least a couple of underdogs worth a look.
One of the stronger cases comes with Wyoming on the road. The Cowboys’ defense was the one part of the team that really held up during a strong 2025 season, finishing 18th in defensive success rate and 32nd in opponent EPA per play.
Colorado State, by contrast, sat outside the top 100 in almost every major offensive and defensive category. Wyoming does have roster turnover, but Jay Sawvel is back as head coach, and that alone gives the Cowboys a better chance to show up ready on defense.
That’s enough to make them appealing as a road underdog in Week 1.
The Louisville-Ole Miss matchup also has upset appeal. Trinidad Chambliss is back for another year at Ole Miss, but that doesn’t automatically make the Rebels the same force they were last season under Lane Kiffin.
Ole Miss has plenty of weapons on offense, but Louisville has firepower of its own. Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry last season, and if he comes close to that again, the Cardinals will be a difficult offense to contain.
Louisville also brings back a defense that was better than the numbers Ole Miss posted a year ago. The Cardinals finished 25th in defensive success rate, while Ole Miss landed 56th in that metric and 86th in opponent rush success rate. The edge goes to the team with the returning head coach, and that’s why Jeff Brohm’s group stands out as a live upset play.
There’s another upset angle in the UCLA-California game. UCLA’s profile from last season was rough across the board, with the Bruins ranking 116th in Net EPA per Play, 87th in offensive success rate, and 134th in defensive success rate.
California, meanwhile, upgraded its roster through the transfer portal and added Josh Lupoi as head coach. That’s a move worth believing in, especially after what he did as the architect of one of the best defenses in the country at Oregon.
In this spot, the pick is California as a small underdog.
The week isn’t loaded with easy upset opportunities, but these are the three that stand out: Wyoming, Louisville, and California.
In Other News...
Louisvilles Frontcourt Rebuild Just Got A Needed Preseason Boost
Louisvilles preseason schedule is now on the board, and it gives Pat Kelseys rebuilt roster a clear runway before the games count. The Cardinals will get an exhibition test against Kansas on October 21, then open the official season against Chattanooga on November 2, two early checkpoints for a team that has spent much of the offseason reshaping itself after losing most of its top players from last year.
For a frontcourt looking for stability, the encouraging news has come from two newcomers in Karter Knox and Obinna Ekezie Jr., who are making steady progress in their offseason recovery. Kelsey said both are moving ahead of where the staff expected at this stage, a welcome sign for a Louisville team that has leaned heavily on recruiting and transfers to rebuild the roster and needs every healthy body it can get as preseason work begins. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville May Get More Than Depth From This SEC Safety
TJ Banks arrives in Louisville with more than the look of a depth addition. The junior defensive back from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, came to Ole Miss after drawing interest from Alabama, Auburn and other SEC programs, then worked his way from a special teams role in 2024 into a bigger defensive presence in 2025. He was mostly used at free safety as his snaps climbed, giving him a more visible part in what was a strong Ole Miss defense.
For Louisville, that background makes Banks an intriguing piece rather than just another body in the secondary. The Cardinals appear poised to use him as a rotational safety, and his time in the SEC could offer more than experience alone. There is also the possibility that he brings some insight into how Ole Miss operated defensively, which could be a useful extra layer as Louisville continues sorting out its own back end. [Read more 🡒]
Isaac Ellis Could Give Louisville A Freshman Spark Sooner Than Expected
Isaac Ellis has arrived at Louisville with the kind of reputation that tends to travel quickly around a program. The 6-foot-1 freshman guard comes in from Overtime Elite with a track record that includes league MVP honors, and the Cardinals are already talking about the blend he brings as he gets set for his first college season. Coaches and players have pointed to his competitiveness, defensive edge, scoring ability and playmaking as traits that should fit naturally into the way Louisville wants to play.
For a roster looking for fresh energy, Ellis could be one of the more intriguing names to watch before long. His path to campus came earlier than originally expected, and that only adds to the sense that Louisville may not have to wait very long to see what he can do. If his Overtime Elite production is any indication, the freshman spark might be there sooner than many around the program first assumed. [Read more 🡒]