Louisville took care of business against Syracuse, but the road to the ACC Championship Game still looks steep.
The Cardinals moved to 4-3 with a 34-26 win over the Orange in a game that flipped from a high-scoring first half to a much quieter finish. Louisville led 28-23 at halftime, then the third quarter came and went without a point for either side. In the fourth, the Cardinals edged Syracuse 6-3 to close it out.
Jeff Brohm’s team is now 3-2 in the ACC and sitting sixth in the league, with a chance to keep pushing in the second half of the season after an early stretch that included losses to Wake Forest and North Carolina State. But even with the win, Louisville’s path to the conference title game remains narrow.
The biggest obstacle is Wake Forest.
According to Kelly Dickey, if Louisville wins out and finishes 7-2 in league play while Wake Forest handles the games it is favored in, the Cardinals would still end up third. In other words, Louisville needs the Demon Deacons to stumble twice, and the Cardinals have to run the table.
If Louisville finishes 7-2 in the ACC and favorites win all other games, UofL will finish third, tied with Southern Methodist.
Wake Forest must be upset twice in its remaining five games or Miami upset three times in six games for UofL to make the ACC Championship game at 7-2.
- Kelly Dickey (@RealCardGame) October 17, 2026
Wake Forest’s schedule does offer one game that stands out as a possible loss, but the rest looks manageable. ESPN gives the Demon Deacons at least a 75 percent chance to win every game except one, and they are favored in all of them.
They host UVA first, with an 82.7 percent chance to win, then face Merrimack before entering a three-game stretch that matters most for Louisville’s hopes. That run starts with a trip to Dallas to face SMU, where Wake Forest has a 57 percent chance to win. After that, it goes to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech, where ESPN gives the Demon Deacons an 83 percent chance of winning, and then finishes at home against Duke, with a 76 percent chance.
Louisville’s own path is cleaner on paper, but it doesn’t solve the larger problem. The Cardinals are favored in all of their ACC games and have at least a 68 percent chance to win every remaining game except one.
They host Stanford, then travel to Georgia Tech, where they are a heavy favorite in both matchups. After that, the tougher November stretch begins with UNC on the road, Pitt at home, and Kentucky in Lexington.
UNC is the toughest of Louisville’s remaining conference games, with ESPN giving Brohm’s team a 58 percent chance to win there.
So Louisville still has to keep winning. But winning alone may not be enough. The Cardinals need help, and they need Wake Forest to slip at least twice if they want a real shot at the ACC title game.
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With a week off in hand, the next stretch now looms large over the final five regular-season games. The offense, led by quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, has done its part and given Louisville a stable foundation, but the real question is whether the defensive fixes that steadied the last two games can hold up once the schedule starts demanding answers again. [Read more 🡒]
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The bigger picture is just as demanding, because Louisville is not easing into anything. The schedule is loaded with ranked opponents, which will quickly show whether this group can come together fast enough to compete at the level Kelsey is aiming for. For a team with Final Four ambitions, the first real test comes early, and it should say plenty about how far this rebuild can go. [Read more 🡒]