Louisville’s early push toward the College Football Playoff has one obvious flaw, and it’s a frustratingly familiar one: the Cardinals are winning the turnover battle, but they’re not cashing in.
That matters because Jeff Brohm’s team has done plenty right through three games. Louisville is 2-1, ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll, and the only loss came on a last-second field goal against No.
4 Ole Miss. With the hardest stretch of the schedule now behind it, the Cardinals have put themselves in a spot they’ve never reached before.
The offense has been the loudest part of the story. Louisville put up 41 points in a comeback win over SMU and nearly erased a 14-point second-half deficit against Ole Miss before falling Louisville has also leaned on new quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who has already handled himself well against two top-five quarterback prospects this season.
There’s been real support on the other side of the ball, too. The defense has bent at times - 41 points allowed to Ole Miss, 31 to SMU - but it has also delivered in key moments.
Louisville is tied for sixth nationally among FBS teams with six takeaways. The Cardinals have won the turnover battle in all three games, and under Brohm they are 19-1 when doing that, with the lone loss coming against Ole Miss in Week 1 this year.
That’s usually the kind of formula that wins big. Louisville is averaging 46 points per game, which ranks 12th in the country, and that kind of scoring paired with a defense that creates extra possessions is exactly the sort of combination that can keep a playoff run alive.
But here’s the catch: Louisville has not scored directly off a turnover yet this season.
That’s the missing piece. Being plus-six in turnover margin after three games is impressive.
Putting up 46 points a night is impressive. Doing both together is what separates a good team from one that can really break through.
And in Louisville’s case, those empty chances may have cost it a better record right now.
The Ole Miss game showed the problem in sharp relief. Louisville’s defense picked off Trinidad Chambliss once and forced a fumble in the first half.
Chambliss had just three turnovers total last season, so those were big plays. But the Cardinals got nothing from either one.
Both drives ended in three-and-outs, and Louisville went into halftime down 10-6. If the offense had turned even one of those stops into points, the result could have swung the other way.
The SMU game played out differently. Louisville won, so the missed chances didn’t sting as much.
Two of the turnovers came late with the Cardinals already ahead by 10, and two of the three were followed by punts. The third was the game-sealing interception, after which Louisville simply ran out the clock.
Even more important, the Cardinals also forced two turnovers on downs against SMU and scored touchdowns on the drives right after those stops. Those don’t count as turnovers in the stat book, but they still mattered on the field.
So the Cardinals are in good shape, but not perfect shape. They’re 2-1, they have a path to the ACC Championship Game if they handle the games they’re supposed to win, and they’ve shown enough on offense and defense to believe the CFP is in play.
Still, there’s a reason the margin for error feels thin. Brohm is 5-5 against AP Top 25 teams at Louisville, and since arriving in 2023 he has also dropped at least one ACC game as the favorite.
In Other News...
Louisville Defense Suddenly Has A Major Antonio Watts Problem
Louisvilles defense lost another experienced piece this week, with Antonio Watts sidelined again after working his way back into the lineup for 2026. The linebacker/safety had already dealt with an injury that kept him out at the end of the 2025 season, and this year he had started all three games before the latest setback showed up on the injury report.
The Cardinals now have to sort through a defense that is already carrying a busy availability report, with several players tagged probable, questionable or out ahead of the next round of games. Watts absence leaves a noticeable hole in the middle of the unit and adds another layer of uncertainty to a group that was counting on his return to stabilize things. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville May Catch Wake Forest Without Its Biggest Offensive Threat
Louisvilles next ACC test could get a little more manageable if Wake Forest is forced to adjust at quarterback. The Demon Deacons enter the week leaning on Gio Lopez, who has been one of their most important offensive pieces and sits near the top of the conference in passing yards and touchdowns, making him the kind of player who changes how an opponent has to defend every snap.
Lopez is listed as questionable because of a hip injury, and his status leaves an obvious layer of uncertainty around Wake Forests game plan. He has already pushed through the issue before, so Louisville cant count on a clean break from the challenge, but the Cardinals will be watching closely to see whether the Demon Deacons are operating with their biggest threat at full strength. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville Has A Chance To Shake Up The Rivalry On Saturday
Louisville will have a notable recruiting visitor on hand Saturday when 4-star safety Tristin Hughes comes in for the Wake Forest game. The Ohio standout has built a long offer sheet with more than 25 schools involved, and he already sits among the more highly regarded defenders in the 2027 class. For a Cardinals staff trying to keep pushing its future group forward, getting a player of that caliber on campus is the kind of chance that can matter well beyond one fall weekend.
The setting gives Louisville a little extra intrigue, too, with a chance to make an impression in a rivalry lane that always draws attention from both fan bases. Hughes remains a major national target, and any program trying to land him has to keep showing why it belongs in the conversation. For the Cardinals, the visit is part of a larger effort to build out that 2027 class, and adding a recruit with Hughes profile would be a meaningful step in that direction. [Read more 🡒]