Louisville’s bounce-back against Florida State did more than end a two-game skid. It gave the Cardinals a fresh surge in the ESPN Football Power Index, and a much clearer path through the rest of the regular season.
After Friday night’s 44-20 home win, Louisville moved up 12 spots to No. 24 in the latest FPI update. Syracuse, meanwhile, checks in at No. 63 as the teams prepare to meet Saturday at 7:30 p.m. The FPI Matchup Predictor gives Louisville a 75.9% chance to win in the Carrier Dome.
That projection fits the bigger picture, too. ESPN’s updated numbers favor Louisville in every remaining game except the season finale at Kentucky, which still narrowly tilts to the Wildcats at 52.8%. That mark has held for a third straight week.
The Cardinals also own a favorable outlook when it comes to postseason eligibility. Louisville’s remaining strength of schedule is No. 59 in the FPI, and the model gives the team a 92.1% chance of getting to at least six wins.
At the top of the national FPI rankings, Notre Dame sits at No. 1 ahead of Georgia, Ohio State, Miami and Alabama. The Irish also carry the highest national title odds at 18.4%.
Within the ACC, Miami leads the conference in the FPI, followed by Wake Forest, Louisville, Pittsburgh and North Carolina.
Louisville’s trip to Syracuse is part of a schedule the FPI has largely liked from the start, even if the results haven’t always matched the projections. The Cardinals were picked to beat Ole Miss in the opener at Nashville, and Ole Miss pulled out a 41-38 win on a last-second field goal.
Louisville was also projected to beat Wake Forest and NC State, but dropped both of those games. The Cardinals did deliver against Florida State, winning convincingly after the model had them as the favorite there as well.
The Orange enter the matchup off a 28-25 road loss at Virginia and were picked to finish 14th in the ACC preseason poll. Louisville has won 13 of the 21 all-time meetings between the schools.
Here’s a look at how the rest of Louisville’s schedule lines up in the current FPI projections:
Sept. 6 vs Ole Miss (Nashville, Tenn.) ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Predictor: 69.1% Opponent FPI Rank: 14
Opponent W/L Projection: 7-5 OUTCOME: Ole Miss win, 41-38, on last-second field goal
Sept. 11 vs Villanova ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 98.3% Opponent FPI Rank: N/A
Villanova, No. 18th in the FCS Top 25, entered the game at 1-1. OUTCOME: No.
23 Louisville beat No. 16 SMU, 41-31
Sept. 26 vs Wake Forest ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 80.1% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
54 Opponent W/L Projection: 7-5
OUTCOME: Wake Forest win, 30-27
Oct. 3 at NC State ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 67.2% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
58 Opponent W/L Projection: 6-6
OUTCOME: Louisville fell at NC State, 31-28
Oct. 9 vs Florida State ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 53.2% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
30 Opponent W/L Projection: 6-6
OUTCOME: Louisville win, 44-20
Oct. 17 at Syracuse ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 75.9% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
63 Opponent W/L Projection: 4-8
LAST: Lost at Virginia, 28-25, to drop to 2-3
Oct. 31 vs Stanford ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 97.5% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
110 Opponent W/L Projection: 4-8
LAST: Lost at Notre Dame, 58-7, to drop to 2-4
Nov. 7 at Georgia Tech ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 77.7% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
67 Opponent W/L Projection: 4-8
LAST: Defeated Duke, 28-25, to improve to 2-3
Nov. 14 at North Carolina ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 56.3% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
39 Opponent W/L Projection: 7-5
LAST: Won at Pitt, 21-17, to fall to 3-2
Nov. 21 vs Pittsburgh ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Louisville
Predictor: 60.5% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
32 Opponent W/L Projection: 9-4
LAST: Won at home to North Carolina, to drop to 5-1
Nov. 28 at Kentucky ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Kentucky
Predictor: 52.8% Opponent FPI Rank: No.
30 Opponent W/L Projection: 8-4
LAST: Defeated LSU, 35-34 (ot) to improve to 5-1
The Cardinals will look to keep the momentum rolling in Syracuse before turning back toward a final stretch that still has Louisville favored everywhere but Lexington.
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