Louisville vs. Baylor: A Late-Season Clash With March Implications
FORT WORTH, TX - When Louisville takes the floor against Baylor today at Dickies Arena, it’s more than just a February nonconference matchup - it’s a high-stakes opportunity for a Cardinals team that’s gaining steam at the right time and a Bears squad fighting to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
This game wasn’t on anyone’s radar a few years ago, but it’s part of a growing trend in college hoops: power programs scheduling marquee nonconference games late in the season to boost their résumés and prep for March. And this one has a little extra spice - Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey was hired after the Cards pursued Baylor’s Scott Drew last spring to replace Kenny Payne. Drew stayed in Waco, and Kelsey now leads a surging Louisville squad into Drew’s backyard.
“He just seems like a guy who wins - and wins at a high level - and does it the right way,” Kelsey said of Drew. “People really respect him and like him.”
That respect is mutual, but make no mistake - both coaches want this one badly.
Louisville Riding High Behind Star Freshman
The 23rd-ranked Cardinals (18-6, 8-4 ACC) are clicking. Monday’s 118-77 demolition of N.C.
State was their fourth straight win, and it wasn’t just a blowout - it was a record-tying showcase. Freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. exploded for 45 points, tying the program’s single-game scoring mark and matching the record for made threes with 10.
That performance alone would’ve been headline-worthy, but senior Ryan Conwell added 31 points on a blistering 10-for-14 shooting night. It was the first time in program history two Louisville players dropped 30-plus in the same game.
Kelsey, though, isn’t letting his team get caught up in the hype.
“You're only as good as your next one,” he said. “I like how our guys responded to success the other day, having a big win and not changing, not blinking.”
That mindset will be tested today. Baylor (13-11, 3-9 Big 12) may not have the record of a typical Drew-led team, but they’re dangerous - especially at home and especially with a coach who knows how to get his teams ready for big moments.
A Quad 1 Test With Tournament Stakes
This game isn’t just about pride or momentum - it’s a Quad 1 opportunity for Louisville. Baylor entered the weekend ranked 44th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and 46th in the NCAA’s NET rankings. That puts them right on the bubble, and according to projections from BartTorvik.com, the Bears are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to March Madness - something that hasn’t happened to Drew’s program since 2018.
Their most recent outing? A 99-94 home loss to No. 22 BYU on Tuesday - a shootout that showed both their offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities.
This is only the second-ever meeting between these programs. The first came back in 2016 during the Battle 4 Atlantis championship, when Baylor stormed back from 22 down to stun Rick Pitino’s Louisville squad, 66-63. That comeback still stings for Cards fans, and while few players remain from those days, the memory adds a layer of intrigue.
New Faces, Same Expectations
Baylor’s 2025-26 roster looks nothing like last season’s 20-15 team - zero returning players. But talent isn’t the issue.
Sophomore Cameron Carr and freshman Tounde Yessoufou are both ranked among ESPN’s top 100 NBA draft prospects, and both have flashed the kind of upside that can swing a game. The challenge has been putting it all together consistently.
“They're dangerous,” Kelsey said. “And they've got a Hall of Fame coach. He's not in yet - but he will be.”
How to Watch and Listen
- TV: The game airs on ESPN (channel 602 on AT&T U-Verse; 206 on DirecTV; 140 on Dish; 506 on Spectrum).
- Streaming: Available on ESPN.com and the ESPN app for cable subscribers.
Fubo also offers a livestream with a free trial.
- Radio: Paul Rogers and Jody Demling will have the call on the Cardinal Sports Network (WLCL 93.9-FM and WGTK 970-AM in Louisville).
You can also listen online via GoCards.com.
The Numbers Say It’s Close
Oddsmakers have Louisville as a 6½-point favorite, with the over/under set at 163½ - suggesting another high-scoring affair could be in store. KenPom gives the Cards a 68% chance of winning and projects an 85-80 final. BartTorvik is even more bullish on Louisville, giving them a 78% shot with a projected 87-78 score.
What’s at Stake
For Louisville, it’s a chance to add another quality win to an already strong résumé and keep the momentum rolling into the final stretch of ACC play. For Baylor, it’s about survival. A win here could reignite their postseason hopes and remind everyone that Scott Drew’s teams are never out of it until the final buzzer sounds.
This one has all the ingredients: rising stars, coaching storylines, postseason implications, and two programs with something to prove. Buckle up.