NC State comes into the middle stretch of its season sitting at 2-2, though the record feels a little misleading after a road SEC win slipped away in dramatic fashion at Vanderbilt. Now Dave Doeren has a chance to steady things against a Louisville team that could still be dealing with the fallout from a tough loss.
For the Wolfpack, everything starts with CJ Bailey. The veteran quarterback came back to State this season instead of chasing a bigger payday in the portal, and he remains the engine of the offense.
Bailey is tall, slender and mobile, but not the kind of runner Louisville has faced earlier this year. His real strength shows up between the numbers and on intermediate throws, where his quick decisions and accuracy help him pile up completions.
If the Cards aren’t sharp in coverage, Bailey can make them pay.
That said, he hasn’t been flawless. Bailey has had trouble at times finding open targets down the field, and Virginia gave him problems by staying tight in coverage and making life difficult on intermediate and deep throws.
The Cavaliers also got pressure without needing to send extra rushers. Bailey can move, but he isn’t the sort of twitchy athlete who will effortlessly shake free once the pocket starts closing.
If pressure gets in his face, he can struggle to escape it. Even so, he’s experienced enough to stand in and deliver if his receivers are open.
NC State’s ground game has held up well despite the offseason losses to the portal, including Hollywood Smothers. Duke Scott has stepped into the lead role and has been productive, averaging 6 yards per carry and 86 yards per game.
He probably would have even bigger numbers if he got more touches. He just delivered one of his best outings yet, carrying 25 times for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Scott runs with force, breaks tackles and keeps churning until cutback lanes open up or second effort creates something out of nothing. He’s the best back Louisville has seen since Kewan Lacy.
Behind him is another problem for defenses: Will Wilson. The backup quarterback is the Wolfpack’s second-leading rusher and handles the short-yardage package.
At 6-1 and 227 pounds, he looks every bit the bruiser, and maybe even bigger. NC State brings him in for every obvious short-yardage situation and leans on a set of designed runs that everyone in the stadium knows is coming.
It still doesn’t get stopped very often. Wilson will throw occasionally in that package, but not much.
At receiver, the chemistry between Bailey and JoJo Trader still hasn’t fully developed, even after Bailey helped recruit his high school teammate to Raleigh this offseason. Trader was an enigma at Miami and hasn’t turned into a consistent threat at State either, where he ranks third on the team in receiving without making many impact plays.
The bigger name right now is Keenan Jackson. He erupted against Vanderbilt with 9 catches for 102 yards and 3 touchdowns and has emerged as Bailey’s top downfield target while also being dependable on intermediate routes.
Louisville had no answer for Carlos Hernandez last weekend, and Jackson is the next receiver it has to account for.
Preston Douglas gives Bailey another steady outlet at tight end. The sophomore has become a true safety valve, often used on quick throws that function like part of the run game.
He also finds soft spots in zone coverage over the middle. He hasn’t shown much big-play juice, but Bailey clearly trusts him in important moments.
Up front, NC State lost its top offensive lineman to the portal, but the unit still brings veteran experience. Louisville-native Spike Sowells is the youngest starter on the line as a true sophomore, though he’s already coming off a freshman All-American season.
This group has been around, but not every piece has stacked up a huge number of snaps. That could open the door for Louisville to mix in different pressures and try to rattle the Wolfpack’s protection.
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Daughtry has already seen several other programs and is expected to keep making official visits this fall, so the race is far from settled. Still, Kelseys direct approach appears to have moved Louisville from a name on the list to a school worth serious attention, which is exactly the sort of traction the Cardinals need if they want to change their odds in the backcourt. [Read more 🡒]