Louisville basketball is heating up at just the right time.
Riding its longest win streak since November, the Cardinals have rattled off four straight victories to push their record to 18-6 overall and 8-4 in ACC play. With just seven games left in the regular season, Pat Kelsey’s squad is starting to look like a team that could make some serious noise in March.
But before we get there, there's a big test looming: a neutral-site showdown this Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas, against Baylor. It’s a rare nonconference matchup this late in the season - and one that could have big implications for Louisville’s tournament résumé.
Kelsey’s Message: Stay Focused
Back in January, when the Cards were slogging through a 4-4 stretch, Kelsey warned his team about falling for what he called “rat poison” - the outside noise, the distractions, the hype. Now, with his team back in the national rankings at No. 23 and folks starting to talk about Louisville as a potential bracket buster, the message hasn’t changed.
“Ignorance is bliss,” Kelsey said after Monday’s dominant win over NC State at the KFC Yum! Center. “Blinders on - look straight ahead.”
That mindset has served them well so far, but the road ahead isn’t getting any easier. Five of Louisville’s final seven regular-season games are Quad 1 opportunities - the kind of games that can swing a team’s NCAA Tournament seeding in a big way.
Mikel Brown Jr. Making History
If you’re looking for a player who’s embodying Louisville’s late-season surge, start with Mikel Brown Jr. The freshman guard was electric on Monday, tying the program’s single-game records for both points (45) and made threes (10) in the blowout win over the Wolfpack.
“We’re starting to click,” Brown said after the game. “Those ups and downs, we really came together as a squad.”
That chemistry is showing up in the metrics, too.
Tournament Résumé: Trending Up
As of Tuesday, Louisville ranked 14th in the NCAA’s NET rankings - their highest mark since early January - and 22nd in Wins Above Bubble (3.48), a stat that measures how much better a team is performing compared to the average bubble squad.
Here’s how the Cards stack up across the NCAA’s four quadrant system:
- Quad 1: 5-6
- Quad 2: 4-0
- Quad 3: 3-0
- Quad 4: 6-0
That’s a clean sweep in the lower quadrants and a respectable showing in the ones that matter most. The résumé is solid - and improving.
According to EvanMiya.com, Louisville’s résumé quality ranked 24th in the country, placing them in the 6-8 seed range. BartTorvik.com had them as the fourth-best No. 5 seed, trailing only Alabama, Texas Tech, and North Carolina.
The Bracket Matrix, a composite of nearly 100 bracket projections, slotted Louisville as the third-best No. 6 seed. They appeared in all 99 brackets analyzed, with a projected seed range between No. 5 and No.
- That tells you two things: they’re in, and they’ve got room to climb.
Odds Check: Louisville’s Path to Indy
As of Tuesday, sportsbooks were giving Louisville a puncher’s chance at a deep run. DraftKings listed the Cardinals at +1,200 (12-1) to reach the Final Four and +5,000 (50-1) to win the national title at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
BetMGM’s odds were slightly longer: +1,600 (16-1) for a Final Four appearance and +8,000 (80-1) to cut down the nets.
Long shots? Sure. But with the way this team is trending - and with a coach like Kelsey who knows how to push the right buttons - you can’t rule anything out.
What’s Next: Baylor on the Horizon
Louisville’s next challenge is a unique one: a neutral-site nonconference matchup in mid-February. The Cards will face Baylor at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET - a game that was added late in the season to bolster their strength of schedule.
Kelsey credited Duke coach Jon Scheyer for the idea. Scheyer’s Blue Devils are playing No.
2 Michigan next week in a similar showcase. Last season, Duke used a late-season nonconference win over Illinois as a springboard to the Final Four.
Kelsey’s hoping for a similar boost - but he’s also keeping expectations in check.
“You go out to Texas and you lose, I’ll be mad at Brian Kloman for scheduling the game,” Kelsey joked, referencing his assistant coach.
As for Baylor, this isn’t the same juggernaut we’ve seen in recent years. Under longtime head coach Scott Drew, the Bears entered Tuesday night’s game against No.
22 BYU at 13-10 overall and just 3-8 in Big 12 play. They were ranked 46th in the NET and, according to KenPom.com, have zero returning continuity from last year’s roster.
That lack of experience and cohesion has shown. Baylor is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018 - a far cry from the national title contender status they’ve held for much of the last decade.
Still, this is a Quad 1 game on the road - and a valuable test for a Louisville team that’s trying to prove it belongs in the upper tier of the bracket.
Final Stretch
With seven games to go, Louisville has a real shot to climb the seed line - but it’s going to take more of what we’ve seen over the last two weeks: locked-in defense, efficient offense, and a team that’s peaking at the right time.
They’ve got the momentum. Now it’s about maintaining the focus. As Kelsey keeps reminding his players: blinders on, eyes forward.
March is coming. And Louisville looks ready.