After a rocky start to January, Louisville basketball got back on track in a big way last weekend, steamrolling Pittsburgh in a performance that felt more like a statement than just another win. The Cardinals led for all but 29 seconds and built a lead as large as 45 points - the kind of dominance that not only boosts morale but also turns heads in the selection committee’s room.
Now sitting at 13-5 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, Pat Kelsey's No. 21 squad is firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture. The question isn’t whether Louisville will hear its name called on Selection Sunday - it’s where they’ll be seeded, and how favorable their path could be. Every game from here on out is about seeding, momentum, and proving they can sustain the level of play we saw in Pittsburgh.
Tournament Resume: Where the Cards Stand
As of midweek, Louisville ranked 15th in the NCAA’s NET rankings - a key metric used by the selection committee - and boasted a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) score of 1.46, good for 29th nationally. That WAB number essentially tells us how much better the Cards are performing than the average bubble team. In other words, they’re not just in the field - they’re comfortably in.
When it comes to resume quality, analytics site EvanMiya.com slotted Louisville 30th, projecting them somewhere in the 6-to-8 seed range. Over at BartTorvik.com, the Cards were pegged as the second-best No. 5 seed, trailing only Kansas and ahead of programs like Texas Tech and Arkansas. That puts them right on the cusp of climbing into the top 16 overall, which would mean a protected seed and, potentially, a more favorable regional draw.
Bracketology Snapshot
Looking across the Bracket Matrix - a composite of dozens of bracket predictions - Louisville was the top No. 6 seed as of Wednesday, with a seeding average of 5.89. The Cards appeared in all 84 bracket projections tracked, which speaks to the consensus around their tournament status.
There’s some variance in how high or low experts are placing them. One bracketologist had the Cards all the way up as a No. 4 seed, while two others had them as low as a No.
- That kind of fluctuation is typical this time of year, especially for teams hovering in that 5-to-8 seed range.
But Louisville has a clear opportunity to firm up its standing over the next couple of weeks.
Odds Check: Final Four and Beyond
If you’re wondering how Vegas sees Louisville’s chances, the oddsmakers are giving them an outside shot at a deep run. As of Wednesday, DraftKings had the Cardinals at +1,200 (12-1) to reach the Final Four and +5,000 (50-1) to win it all in Indianapolis. BetMGM had slightly longer Final Four odds at +1,600 (16-1), but the same 50-1 title line.
Those numbers reflect a team that’s respected, but not yet considered among the elite. Still, with the right draw and a hot stretch in March, those odds could look a lot shorter in a few weeks.
What’s Next: A Key Stretch Ahead
Louisville returns to action at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, hosting Virginia Tech at the KFC Yum!
Center. The Hokies came in at No. 54 in the NET rankings as of Wednesday, making this a Quad 2 matchup - a valuable opportunity for the Cards to add another solid win to their resume.
Virginia Tech is also currently projected as the last team in the field by BartTorvik, so this game carries weight for both sides.
After that, the challenge ramps up. Louisville heads to Durham for a rematch with No.
5 Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday, Jan. 26.
That’s followed by a return home to face SMU on Saturday, Jan. 31, closing out the month with a chance to build some real momentum heading into February.
The road ahead is tough, but the opportunity is there. If the Cardinals can bottle up what they showed against Pitt - the energy, the execution, the edge - and bring that consistently, they won’t just be dancing in March. They’ll be a team nobody wants to face.