Bill Belichick’s first season at North Carolina got off to a rough start on offense, and the fix came in the form of Bobby Petrino. After a few stops since his dismissal from Louisville, Petrino has brought his usual offensive know-how to Chapel Hill, and the Tar Heels have taken a step forward. Even so, the numbers still leave them sitting near the bottom in several important offensive categories.
At quarterback, UNC has been good enough, not great, with Billy Edwards. The veteran transfer has largely been what many expected, but his uneven play has still shown up in the losses.
Lately, though, he’s started to settle in. His last two outings were his best of the season: he carved up Miami for four touchdowns while completing 82% of his throws, then followed that up by hitting 76% against a solid UConn defense.
He’s not among the elite quarterbacks Louisville has faced this year, but he’s been playing like one over the last couple of weeks.
The Tar Heels also have a backfield built around volume and versatility. They rotate three running backs, and each brings something different.
Demon June leads the group with eight rushing touchdowns. Benjamin Hall is the team’s leader in yards and yards per carry.
Jaylin Mcgill stands out for yards per play and adds value as a receiver out of the backfield. All three weigh more than 220 pounds, and Petrino has used them well.
UNC’s staff has leaned into the hot hand approach, so the workload distribution will be worth watching.
The receiving corps starts with Jordan Shipp, who gives Louisville a clear name to track on the outside. At 6-2 and 200 pounds, he has the size and movement skills to matter.
He’s smooth, has good body control, and can win contested balls or make catches in tight windows. He isn’t a pure track guy once he gets into the open field, but he has enough speed to finish a long play if he shakes free.
The real headache for the Cards may be Jelani Thurman. The tight end has become the biggest weapon in the UNC passing game and one of the top tight ends in the country.
A former Ohio State teammate of Lincoln Keinholz, Thurman has found his footing at North Carolina after not making much of an impact with the Buckeyes. He has already set the school record for touchdowns by a tight end with eight, and that total leads all tight ends nationally.
He also sits in the top five in nearly every receiving category among tight ends.
North Carolina’s passing game doesn’t generate a ton of explosive plays, but when it does, Thurman is usually involved. The Tar Heels work the middle of the field through him, and he also draws defenders with him.
Petrino has long leaned on deep over routes, but this group has done damage down the seams. That’s a problem for Louisville, which has been beaten on seam routes repeatedly this season.
The Cards will need to adjust away from their usual dependence on Cover 3.
Up front, UNC has been solid without being dominant. The offensive line has been about average overall, and that shows most clearly in the run game.
It has kept defenders from living in the backfield, but it hasn’t consistently created big lanes either. Pass protection has been the shakier part.
Edwards is more mobile than a true statue in the pocket, but he’s not the type to easily escape pressure once it arrives. His line has had trouble handling speed rushers, and that gives Louisville a chance to get after him this weekend.
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