As Louisville gears up to face the Michigan State Spartans in the round of 32 this afternoon, basketball fans are in for a thrilling showdown. The Cardinals, fresh off their first NCAA Tournament win since 2017, are riding high after helping coach Pat Kelsey notch his inaugural tournament victory.
But today, they face a formidable opponent in Michigan State, one of the nation's top-ranked teams. Unfortunately, they'll be doing it without their key guard, Mikel Brown Jr., who is missing his sixth consecutive game this season.
Michigan State, ranked No. 9 by KenPom and No. 11 in the AP Polls, presents a tough challenge for Louisville. With a Sweet Sixteen spot on the line, the Cardinals will need to bring their A-game.
Looking at the odds, Michigan State enters the matchup as 4.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel. Despite being favored in the first round, Louisville was a popular pick for an upset, and many experts, including notable analysts like Jay Bilas and Seth Greenberg, predicted their downfall. Interestingly, ESPN Analytics gives Louisville a slight edge, with a 51.0 percent chance of victory.
Odds Breakdown:
- Spread: Michigan State -4.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State -210, Louisville +172
- Over/Under: 150.5
Game Prediction:
For Louisville to pull off the upset, they'll need to protect the ball and replicate their shooting performance from the last game. This season, the Cardinals have struggled against top-tier teams, holding a 1-7 record against the AP Poll's top 25 and a 0-5 record against KenPom’s top 20.
Facing an underseeded Michigan State, Louisville must dig deep without their star player. They've managed an 8-5 record in the 13 games without Brown, securing wins against teams like Miami and SMU. However, when matched against top 20 teams sans Brown, they've gone 0-3, losing by an average of 13.7 points.
Expect the Cardinals to play with heart and keep it competitive, but Michigan State's strength will likely shine through in the end.