Louisville basketball is starting to find its rhythm at just the right time.
Coming off a statement win over SMU, the Cardinals put together a dominant second half, outscoring the Mustangs 44-27 to flip a 12-point first-half deficit into a convincing 14-point victory. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s group showed the kind of resilience and poise that tournament teams are built on - a gritty comeback, executed with energy on both ends of the floor.
Now sitting at 5-4 in conference play, Louisville finds itself back on steadier ground. That win over SMU didn't just help the vibes - it gave their NCAA Tournament résumé a crucial boost, especially after the sting of a 31-point loss to Duke. The Cardinals are holding steady at No. 24 in the AP Top 25, and with two winnable matchups on deck against Notre Dame and Wake Forest, there's real momentum building in Louisville.
Bracketology Update: Louisville Back in the Mix
After slipping as low as an 8-seed in some projections following that Duke blowout, Louisville has climbed back into more favorable territory. According to the latest Bracketology from Joe Lunardi and The Field of 68, the Cardinals are currently projected as a No. 6 seed in the West region in both brackets.
In Lunardi’s projection, Louisville would face the winner of a play-in game between Texas and Ohio State. The Field of 68 has them matched up with UCLA in the first round.
Either way, the message is clear: that win over SMU mattered. It kept the Cardinals from sliding further and reestablished them as a legitimate second-weekend threat.
And the opportunity to climb even higher is right in front of them. Over their final 10 games, Louisville will face a mix of quality opponents, including North Carolina State, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU (again), and Miami.
That’s five potential tournament teams - and two of those games, against UNC and Clemson, are on the road against ranked opponents. If the Cardinals can steal one or two of those, they could easily move up a seed line or two by Selection Sunday.
ACC Bracketology Rundown
Here’s how the rest of the ACC is shaping up in the latest Bracketology projections from Lunardi and The Field of 68:
- Duke (20-1, 9-0 ACC): The Blue Devils are rolling and currently projected as the No. 1 seed in the East region in both brackets. With their only blemish coming early in the season, they’re looking like a legitimate title contender once again.
- Clemson (18-4, 8-1 ACC): After a tough loss to NC State, the Tigers took a slight dip. They’re now slotted as a 6-seed in Lunardi’s bracket and a 7-seed in The Field of 68. Still very much in the top-tier conversation, but they’ll need to hold serve in the coming weeks.
- Virginia (18-3, 7-2 ACC): The Cavaliers continue to do what they do best - win quietly and efficiently. They’re projected as a No. 5 seed in both brackets and remain one of the tougher outs in the conference.
- NC State (16-6, 7-2 ACC): The Wolfpack are heating up at the right time, riding a four-game winning streak. That surge has them slotted as an 8-seed in both projections, and they’ve got a chance to keep climbing with a few more signature wins.
- North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC): Ranked No. 14 in the AP Poll, the Tar Heels are right in the thick of the seeding shuffle. Lunardi has them as a 6-seed, while The Field of 68 bumps them up to a 5. Either way, they’re trending in the right direction.
- Miami (17-5, 6-3 ACC): The Hurricanes have hit a bit of turbulence with losses to Cal and Florida State. They’re still in the bracket for now, but barely - projected as an 11-seed in both brackets and sitting in the play-in game in The Field of 68. Lunardi has them clinging to a spot in the Last Four Byes.
- SMU (15-6, 4-4 ACC): That loss to Louisville hurt. The Mustangs drop to a No. 9 seed in both brackets, but they’ve still got time to recover - and another shot at the Cardinals coming up.
- Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-5 ACC): The Hokies are straddling the tournament cut line. Lunardi has them as the first team out, while The Field of 68 gives them the benefit of the doubt with an 11-seed. They’ll need a strong finish to secure a spot in the field.
What’s Next for Louisville?
The path is there. With two manageable games this week and a handful of high-quality opponents still ahead, Louisville controls its own destiny. If they can build on the momentum from the SMU win and pick up a couple more statement victories, they won’t just be in the tournament - they’ll be a team nobody wants to see come March.
The Cardinals are far from perfect, but they’re starting to show signs of a team that’s figuring it out. And in college basketball, that’s often the most dangerous kind.