Louisville Basketball Eyes Redemption as ACC Makes Strides in National Landscape
Louisville basketball isn’t just chasing wins this season - it’s chasing respect. After a 27-7 campaign in 2024-25 that ended in a frustrating No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Cardinals are looking to avoid another Selection Sunday letdown in Year 2 under head coach Pat Kelsey.
Let’s rewind for a moment. That 27-win season should’ve been a celebration - Louisville’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019, a second-place finish in the ACC, and a return to national relevance. But instead of a favorable draw, the Cards were shipped to Rupp Arena as an 8-seed and bounced in the first round by No. 9 seed Creighton, 89-75.
“It hurt a little bit,” Kelsey admitted back then. “You felt slighted a little bit.” And while Louisville's 4-6 record in Quad 1 games entering the tournament didn’t exactly scream elite resume, the sting of that seeding was amplified by the broader context: the ACC was reeling.
Only four ACC teams made the field last March, and the fourth - North Carolina - barely squeaked in. Half the league finished outside the top 100 in the NET rankings.
Louisville, ranked No. 24 at season’s end, was one of just three ACC teams in the top 30. The league’s collective 22-59 record in nonconference Quad 1 and 2 games (.272 win percentage) was the worst among the Power Five - and even trailed the likes of the American, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and WCC.
So yeah, the ACC had a perception problem. And perception matters come March.
The ACC’s Response: A New Scheduling Strategy
In response to last season’s struggles, the ACC trimmed its conference schedule to 18 games for 2025-26. The goal?
Give teams more flexibility to schedule meaningful nonconference opponents - and win them. Commissioner Jim Phillips said the change was about giving programs “more autonomy,” but make no mistake: this was a calculated move to improve the league’s tournament profile.
Pat Kelsey got the message loud and clear. “You can’t sharpen your teeth eating oatmeal,” he quipped back in July. Translation: Louisville’s not backing down from tough games.
So, Has the ACC Actually Improved?
With nonconference play nearly in the books, there are signs the ACC is climbing back into national relevance. As of December 19, the ACC ranked fourth in KenPom’s conference power ratings at +14.77 - a healthy bump from last year’s fifth-place finish at +9.16.
The only leagues ahead of it? The SEC (+19.09), Big Ten (+17.99), and Big 12 (+17.82).
That’s not just theoretical improvement. The ACC’s performance in its annual challenge with the SEC was a tangible sign of progress. After getting walloped 14-2 last year, the ACC held its own this time around, losing by a much closer 9-7 margin.
In KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings, 12 of the ACC’s 18 teams (two-thirds of the league) were inside the top 75 as of Dec. 19.
The SEC and Big 12 each had 14 teams in that range, while the Big Ten had 15. But here’s the catch: the ACC still had four teams outside the top 100 - Pittsburgh (108), Florida State (118), Georgia Tech (131), and Boston College (139).
That’s as many as the other three power leagues combined.
Meanwhile, the SEC stood alone as the only high-major conference with all of its teams inside the top 100.
NET Rankings: A Mixed Bag for the ACC
The NET rankings - a key metric for the NCAA Selection Committee - paint a similar picture. As of Dec.
19, 14 ACC teams were inside the top 100. That includes:
- Duke (No. 2)
- North Carolina (No. 15)
- Louisville (No. 17)
- Virginia (No. 21)
- Clemson (No. 31)
- Miami (No. 33)
- **N.C. State (No.
34)**
- **SMU (No.
43)**
- **Virginia Tech (No.
55)**
- **Wake Forest (No.
59)**
- **California (No.
63)**
- **Notre Dame (No.
64)**
- **Syracuse (No.
95)**
- **Stanford (No.
97)**
The bottom four? Florida State (149), Pittsburgh (108), Boston College (139), and Georgia Tech (188).
The ACC’s record in high-leverage games has improved but still leaves room for growth. The league was 16-31 in Quad 1 games and 15-7 in Quad 2 - a combined 31-38 mark (.449 win percentage) in the games that matter most for tournament resumes.
Duke has been the league’s standard-bearer so far, racking up five Quad 1 wins - more than any other team in the country. Only eight other programs had at least three Quad 1 victories at that point, including names like Arizona, UConn, and Michigan State.
Louisville’s Path Forward: Plenty of Opportunities
For Louisville, the road ahead is packed with resume-building opportunities. As of Dec. 19, the Cardinals had 15 games remaining that fell into Quad 1 or 2:
- Dec. 30 at California (Q1)
- Jan. 2 at Stanford (Q2)
- Jan. 6 vs. Duke (Q1)
- Jan. 13 vs. Virginia (Q1)
- Jan. 24 vs. Virginia Tech (Q2)
- Jan. 26 at Duke (Q1)
- **Jan. 31 vs.
SMU (Q2)**
- **Feb. 4 vs.
Notre Dame (Q2)**
- Feb. 7 at Wake Forest (Q1)
- **Feb. 9 vs. N.C.
State (Q2)**
- **Feb. 14 vs.
Baylor (Q2)**
- Feb. 17 at SMU (Q1)
- Feb. 23 at North Carolina (Q1)
- Feb. 28 at Clemson (Q1)
- March 7 at Miami (Q1)
That’s 19 total Quad 1 and 2 games on the regular-season schedule - the same number Louisville had entering the ACC Tournament a year ago. And with the NET updating daily, some of those matchups could shift, but the volume of quality games is already there.
In Year 1 under Kelsey, the Cards went 5-7 in Quad 1 games and 10-1 in Quad 2. If they can improve even slightly on that mark this season, they’ll be in a much stronger position come March.
Bracketology Check-In: Louisville in Strong Position
According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi on Dec. 19, the ACC was projected to send eight teams to the 2026 NCAA Tournament - trailing only the SEC and Big Ten, which each had 10 in the field.
Louisville was one of three ACC teams projected to earn a top-16 overall seed. Lunardi slotted the Cards at No. 15, good for a No. 4 seed in the South Region. Duke was even higher at No. 3 overall, with North Carolina rounding out the top 16.
On the bubble, N.C. State was among Lunardi’s “last four byes,” while Virginia Tech and Wake Forest were hovering just outside the cut line.
The Bottom Line
Louisville’s not just playing for wins - it’s playing for validation. After last year’s seeding snub, the Cardinals are determined to leave no doubt. And while the ACC still has work to do to reclaim its spot among college basketball’s elite, the early signs point to a league that’s trending in the right direction.
For Pat Kelsey’s squad, the opportunities are there. Now it’s about stacking quality wins, avoiding landmines, and making sure the Selection Committee has no choice but to take notice.