With the calendar inching closer to March, the Louisville Cardinals are right in the thick of NCAA Tournament chatter-and for good reason. At 19-6 overall and sitting at 8-4 in ACC play, they’ve put themselves in solid position heading into the final stretch of the regular season. Ranked No. 21 in both the AP and Coaches polls, Louisville is making a strong push to return to the Big Dance for the second straight year under head coach Pat Kelsey.
Last season, the Cardinals entered the tournament as a No. 8 seed before bowing out in the first round to Creighton. This year, the bracketologists are a bit more optimistic.
Across 102 projections on Bracket Matrix, Louisville is a consensus tournament team-appearing in every single bracket. The average slot?
A No. 6 seed, with some projections bumping them as high as a No. 4 and as low as a No. 7.
That’s a strong indicator of just how much respect this team is earning nationally.
Let’s take a closer look at how some of the top bracket projections are shaping up for the Cardinals:
ESPN (Joe Lunardi)
Lunardi has Louisville slotted as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region, with games in Portland.
The Cardinals would open against No. 12 seed South Florida. If they advance, they’d be navigating a region topped by No. 1 seed Michigan, with Iowa State, Michigan State, and Alabama rounding out the top four.
CBS Sports
CBS is even higher on Louisville, placing them as a No. 4 seed in the South Region.
That would mean a first-round matchup against No. 13 seed SF Austin. Houston headlines that region as the top seed, followed by Purdue and Kansas.
SB Nation
SB Nation mirrors Lunardi’s projection, placing Louisville as a No. 5 seed in the South Region, again drawing South Florida in the first round in Portland. UConn leads the region, with Houston, Nebraska, and Alabama filling out the top four seeds.
Bracketville
Bracketville pegs the Cards as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, where they’d face No. 11 seed Santa Clara in Philadelphia. Michigan is the top dog in that bracket, with Kansas, Nebraska, and Virginia also in the mix.
Fox Sports (Mike DeCourcy)
DeCourcy has Louisville as a No. 6 seed in the South Region.
Their opener would be against No. 11 seed Georgia. UConn, Houston, Illinois, and North Carolina make up the rest of the top four in that quadrant.
USA Today
USA Today also sees the Cardinals as a No. 6 seed, this time in the West Region.
Their first-round matchup? A play-in winner between USC and San Diego State in St.
Louis. Arizona is the No. 1 seed there, followed by Purdue, Iowa State, and Gonzaga.
Delphi Bracketology
Delphi bumps Louisville up a notch to a No. 5 seed in the East Region.
They’d face South Florida in Tampa, with Duke sitting atop the region. Iowa State, Purdue, and Vanderbilt round out the top four.
Hoops HQ
Hoops HQ keeps Louisville on the No. 6 line in the West Region.
Their projected first-round opponent is Miami of Ohio in Buffalo. The top seeds in that region are Arizona, Purdue, Kansas, and Michigan State.
Offshore Sportsbooks
This projection sees Louisville as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, paired again with SF Austin in the opener. Houston leads the region, followed by Purdue and Florida.
Franketology
Franketology echoes that No. 4 seed prediction, this time in the Midwest Region. The Cardinals would open against No. 13 seed Utah Valley.
What It All Means
No matter which bracket you look at, the message is clear: Louisville is firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture.
They’re not just scraping by-they’re being viewed as a dangerous middle-seed team with the potential to make noise. Whether they land on the 4, 5, or 6 line will likely come down to how they finish out ACC play and perform in the conference tournament.
One thing’s for sure: this team has come a long way under Pat Kelsey. With a balanced offense, a defense that can clamp down when it matters, and a head coach who’s instilled a gritty, up-tempo identity, the Cardinals aren’t just aiming to get into the tournament-they’re looking to stick around for a while.
Selection Sunday is March 15. Until then, expect Louisville to keep climbing-or at least holding firm-as they try to lock in the best possible path through March Madness.