A messy Week 6 across college football sent ESPN’s FPI numbers spinning, and a few teams took some hard hits while others made real noise. The formula has already produced some odd-looking results - Notre Dame jumping past Ohio State to No. 1, with two-loss LSU and Oregon still hanging around the top 10 - but the latest round of games gave the computers plenty more to chew on.
Louisville delivered one of the biggest jolts of the week with its 44-20 win over Florida State. That result pushed the Cardinals sharply upward in the FPI and offered another hint that the ACC still has work to do.
Louisville is 3-3, sits third in the league in FPI, and yet is given only a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Miami is the only ACC team inside the top 21 of the FPI ranking.
Purdue also made a major move after pounding Minnesota 41-13. The Boilermakers picked up one of Week 6’s biggest FPI climbs, though the path ahead still looks steep. FPI gives Purdue just a 35.5% chance to get to six wins, although there are now six Big Ten teams with worse odds - including Minnesota, the team Purdue just beat down.
South Carolina found a way to steady itself in a season that has been hanging by a thread. Shane Beamer’s group went on the road and beat Florida 38-19, a result that gave the Gamecocks a big lift in FPI and moved them to a mild favorite to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, at 57.7%. With frustration around Beamer still very much part of the conversation, every positive turn matters.
Florida State’s problems deepened after Mike Norvell’s team led Louisville 14-0 and then watched the game slip away. The Seminoles’ FPI standing dropped into the middle of the ACC pack, and their odds of getting to six wins now sit at 67%.
West Virginia’s Week 6 collapse was just as damaging. The Mountaineers fell 52-31 to Arizona and tumbled to the bottom of the Big 12 in the FPI rankings. At 3-3, they have only a 14.6% chance of reaching six wins, with only Colorado worse in the conference.
Florida, meanwhile, took another hit after its second straight loss. The Gators’ CFP chances fell all the way to 2.6%, and even their odds of winning six games dipped to 84.5%. Their slide into the middle of the SEC pack stands out as one of the league’s bigger developments from the week.
In Other News...
Louisville's Top Commit Is Creating A Recruiting Problem Jeff Brohm Must Solve
JaHyde Browns rise has given Louisville exactly the kind of in-state recruiting win Jeff Brohm wanted, and then some. The four-star wide receiver from Louisville flipped from Indiana to the Cardinals and has only strengthened his stock since, climbing into the top 50 nationally while putting together a dominant senior season that has plenty of programs paying attention.
Florida has already gotten a visit, and Browns calendar now includes stops at Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas, which is where the real pressure starts for Louisville. Brohm landed the hometown headline commitment, but Browns final decision is far from settled, and the Cardinals now have to protect a prized local pledge against a national recruiting sweep that is still very much in motion. [Read more 🡒]
Ryan Conwell Just Gave Louisville Fans A Real Reason To Watch Miami
Ryan Conwells first taste of NBA preseason action with Miami gave Louisville fans something to track beyond their own roster for a change. After being selected by the Heat in the 2026 NBA Draft, the former Cardinal opened with a modest six-point debut before turning heads in his next outing, when he filled the box score with 22 points, nine assists, five rebounds and two steals.
For Louisville followers, the timing makes the subplot even better, because Miami is set to face Mikel Brown Jr. and the Brooklyn Nets in an upcoming game. Conwell has already said hes grateful for the chance and ready to contribute, and if he keeps flashing that kind of all-around impact, theres a good chance Cardinals fans will have reason to keep one eye on South Beach for a while. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville Has A Chance To Prove The Florida State Win Meant Something
Louisvilles 44-20 home win over Florida State did more than snap a two-game skid. It also pushed the Cardinals up 12 spots to No. 24 in ESPNs Football Power Index, a reminder that one strong performance can change the conversation quickly when a season has already had its rough patches.
Now the question is whether that victory was a turning point or just a solid night against a name opponent. Louisville gets another chance to back it up against Syracuse, and the rest of the season will keep offering those same little checkpoints the FPI tracks game by game, measuring whether the Cardinals are truly building something or simply bouncing back for the moment. [Read more 🡒]