Friday night’s ACC meeting between Florida State and Louisville comes with a strange setup: the Cardinals are the home favorite, but they’re also the team that’s been wobbling for weeks.
Louisville enters at 2-3 and has dropped consecutive conference games by three points apiece, falling to Wake Forest and NC State. The Cardinals have already taken losses to Ole Miss as well, giving them three defeats against Power 4 competition through five games. Even so, oddsmakers still have them favored at home against Florida State and quarterback Ashton Daniels.
That line makes this matchup worth a closer look, because Florida State has shown enough to suggest it can make life difficult on Friday. The Seminoles are 3-2, and both of their losses have come against ranked teams: a three-point defeat to SMU and a 14-point loss to Alabama. They also came away with a big Week 5 win over Virginia.
The Seminoles’ best path is pretty clear. They can run the ball, and they can do it with Daniels involved in a major way.
Florida State ranks 12th in EPA/Rush, and Daniels has been central to that success. He has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,111 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions, a stat line that captures just how up-and-down he’s been.
On the ground, he’s been a real weapon: 57 carries, 278 yards and nine touchdowns. He also led the team with 136 rushing yards in last week’s blowout of Virginia.
That ground game could matter even more because Louisville’s defense has had trouble handling Power 4 opponents. The Cardinals have allowed at least 27 points in every game they’ve played against that level of competition this season, and their pass defense has been especially shaky, ranking 116th in EPA/Pass. That gives Florida State a real opening to attack through the air as well, even though the Seminoles themselves rank just 51st in EPA/Pass.
Overall, Florida State’s offense has been the more reliable unit. The Seminoles are No. 8 in offense so far this season, and they’re also tied for 13th in third- and fourth-down success rate.
Louisville, by contrast, is 23rd in net adjusted EPA/Play, which is better than Florida State’s 36th-place ranking, but the broader body of work has been uneven. The Cardinals are also outside the top 70 in defensive success rate, and both teams sit 100th or worse in EPA/Pass on defense.
There is one result that complicates the picture: both teams have faced SMU. Florida State lost to the Mustangs, while Louisville beat them by 10 points. Still, the full profile points toward the Seminoles being live here, especially with the points in hand.
Florida State getting more than a field goal feels like the sharper side against a Louisville team that is still under .500.
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Louisville Suddenly Has No Margin For Error Against Florida State
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Louisville Keeps Losing Games The Same Painful Way
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The defense was the more alarming problem, with coverage breakdowns creating too many easy openings for big gains and leaving the secondary exposed for much of the day. Louisville did flash some pass-rush pressure and had chances to get off the field, but third-down struggles and the blown assignments in the back end kept undercutting any momentum the Cardinals tried to build. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville Suddenly Has A Real Fight To Keep Its Top 2027 Commit
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Brown has already taken an official visit to Florida and is planning to visit Texas as well, while several heavyweight programs are continuing to lurk around the situation. Florida, Ohio State, Kentucky, Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss are all reportedly trying to change his mind, which is exactly the sort of pressure Louisville hoped to avoid when it landed his commitment. For now the Cardinals still have him in the fold, but this is the kind of recruiting story that can shift quickly if the pursuit keeps building. [Read more 🡒]