The Rams made the right call to stay aggressive against the 49ers in Week 1. The problem was the play they chose.
When Los Angeles faced fourth-and-short at the one-yard line, Sean McVay sent Matthew Stafford on a quarterback sneak, and San Francisco stopped it cold. Instead of drawing even with the 49ers’ touchdown drive, the Rams stayed down 17-7. The next sequence made the damage even worse: San Francisco marched 99 yards for another score, and a three-point game suddenly turned into a 17-point hole in the span of 15 minutes.
By the numbers, McVay’s decision to go for it was the correct one. RBSDM showed a +6 percent bump in win probability, and ESPN analytics had it at +9.5 percent. Stafford said after the game, “I just got to find a way to get it,” but the larger issue is whether the Rams put themselves in the best possible position to convert.
That’s where the conversation shifts to the sneak itself. Since 2021, Stafford has succeeded on just 71.4 percent of his quarterback sneaks, according to Fantasy Points Data.
That trails the league average of 83 percent by nearly 12 percent. Among 55 quarterbacks with at least five sneak attempts in that span, Stafford ranks 42nd.
The broader league trend only sharpens the point. On 3rd or 4th-and-1, or any snap from the 1-yard line since 2022, quarterback sneaks have worked at an 81.8 percent clip with a +0.45 EPA per play, while all other plays have checked in at 63.8 percent success and +0.03 EPA per play. The play is still the cleanest answer in those situations - just not when Stafford is the one executing it.
Kyren Williams has been far better in those same spots, posting an 84.2 percent success rate since 2021. Among players with more than 20 attempts in those situations, Williams leads the group. Jaylen Warren is next at 81.8 percent.
That is why the idea of a tush push package keeps coming up. McVay and the Rams were among the teams against the play when it went through NFL competition committee review, and McVay was blunt at the time: “What I don’t like is the optics of that play,” said McVay at the time.
“Looks like a rugby scrum. And there are some health and safety things, which those things exist in short-yardage and goal-line situations as well…But I also wish we didn’t let the play in in the first place in regards to just the optics of what it looks like.
Doesn’t look like football to me.”
There is at least a reasonable argument for keeping Stafford away from that kind of contact. But that doesn’t mean the Rams need to keep using him as the centerpiece of every short-yardage answer. With the tight ends on their roster, there are other ways to build the package.
Terrance Ferguson, at 252 pounds, would appear to fit the job. Davis Allen would be another option if the Rams wanted to go with a depth tight end. The logic is simple: if defenses already know what’s coming in a tush push look, a team with a quarterback who struggles to sneak can still use a tight end to drive the pile.
Seattle has done it with AJ Barner, who has a 90 percent success rate on QB sneak plays. The only time Barner was stopped came against the Rams. Baltimore has also had success with Mark Andrews, who owns a 73.3 percent success rate, and Connor Heyward has posted a 76.9 percent success rate on QB sneak plays.
McVay’s fourth-down aggression has clearly evolved, and the Rams were right to keep the offense on the field against San Francisco. But the playcall itself was another matter. Given Stafford’s track record, the Rams may be leaving an answer on the table, and in a game decided by inches, that can make all the difference.
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