The NFC West race has a familiar look at the top, with the Los Angeles Rams sitting in front of the defending champion Seattle Seahawks on both the division oddsboard and the Super Bowl board. Austin Mock’s model sees the Rams as the team to beat in the division, and the numbers back that up: Los Angeles is projected for 11.7 wins, with a 77.2% chance to make the playoffs, a 44.4% shot at the division, and a 15.5% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Seattle is right behind them in the projection, but the gap has widened. The Seahawks are forecast for 10.9 wins, a 68.3% playoff chance, a 31.6% chance to take the NFC West, and a 7.8% shot at another title. The San Francisco 49ers are next at 10.1 wins, followed by the Arizona Cardinals at 4.5.
Mock’s read is straightforward: the Rams are overpriced in the betting market, but they still deserve favorite status over the Seahawks. He notes that in a typical season Seattle would likely be the pick to repeat, but Los Angeles changed the equation with an offseason that dramatically upgraded a roster that already pushed the champs hard in 2025.
Last season, Mock’s model actually rated the Rams as the best team in the NFL, while the Seahawks used home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs to keep themselves on the path to a ring. Since then, Seattle has taken some hits, losing Kenneth Walker III, Boye Mafe and Riq Woolen. The Rams, meanwhile, added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, and Aaron Donald also returned from retirement to line up with Garrett on what could become one of the best defensive lines in NFL history.
There’s still plenty to like about Seattle. Mock says, “I personally believe Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald to be one of the brightest defensive minds in football - he’s pretty high in my ranking of head coaches - but we’ll have to wait and see if new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury can pick up where Klint Kubiak left off before taking the head-coaching job in Las Vegas. Fleury has no play-calling experience, which breeds even more uncertainty around the continuity from last season.”
The bigger picture is that repeating is hard enough on its own, and Seattle is doing it from the league’s best division with a super team now sitting in its way. Mock’s model still views the Seahawks as the second-best team in football.
The difference is that the Rams have stretched the distance between them and Seattle - and that gap is now as large as the one between the Seahawks at No. 2 and the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 7.
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Rams Hype Just Ran Into A Brutal Playoff Warning
The Rams have spent the offseason living with championship expectations, and Pete Prisco isnt backing away from that part of the conversation. The NFL analyst sees Los Angeles finishing with the NFCs top seed and earning a first-round bye, which fits the buzz around a roster that has drawn plenty of praise and even stronger Super Bowl support from the betting market.
But Priscos view turns sharp once the playoffs actually begin. Even with the appeal of recent additions like Myles Garrett and the return of Aaron Donald, he is skeptical the Rams will handle the pressure of those expectations, and he has them falling in their first postseason game to the Seahawks. Its a warning that lands hard for a team built to contend, because the regular-season ceiling may be high even if the postseason path still looks fragile. [Read more 🡒]
Rams Make Another Quick Draft Pick Decision Fans Will Notice
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Sheriff arrives as developmental depth at a position the Rams continue to monitor, bringing a fresh look after spending time with the Seahawks. For a team that has been willing to turn over the bottom of the roster quickly, the move fits a familiar pattern, even if it leaves the larger question of how the Rams want to build out that edge group still hanging there. [Read more 🡒]
Rams Opener Just Got Tougher With Nick Bosa Trending This Way
The Rams trip to Australia for the season opener already carried enough unfamiliarity without having to factor in Nick Bosa, and the 49ers edge rusher is suddenly looking much more like a real part of the opener picture. Bosa returned to practice for the first time since Aug. 3 after dealing with tendinitis in his right knee, the same knee that previously went through ACL surgery, giving San Francisco a late but meaningful lift as the teams prepare to open in Melbourne.
Bosa is traveling with the 49ers and said he is cautiously optimistic about being ready for the game, which is exactly the kind of development the Rams would rather not have to monitor this close to kickoff. He also sounded settled into the unusual road trip ahead, talking about the recovery process and even looking forward to trying some local coffee and checking out nature exhibits, but for Los Angeles the bigger issue is simple: the opener just got a lot more complicated if Bosa keeps trending this way. [Read more 🡒]