The Rams may still sit near the top of the Super Bowl market, but the first three weeks have made the picture a lot less tidy than it looked in August.
Sean McVay’s team opened the 2026 NFL season as the clear betting favorite at the best sportsbooks, yet a 1-2 start has dropped Los Angeles into third in the NFC West and raised real questions about whether it still deserves to be treated like the league’s top team. Injuries have played a major role in that shift, with Myles Garrett out six weeks after a knee procedure and Puka Nacua missing back-to-back games. The Rams have also taken losses against two contenders, San Francisco and Denver, and that has trimmed their cushion in both division and Super Bowl futures.
Even with that stumble, oddsmakers are not ready to push them out of the elite tier. Sports Illustrated spoke with several books, and the consensus was that Los Angeles remains a heavyweight - just not the runaway favorite it was before the season.
“The Rams are currently still our highest power rated team, but the gap has narrowed significantly since preseason,” a FanDuel Trader told Sports Illustrated. “Once they get Puka and Myles Garrett back, they should regain a healthy lead as our highest rated team.”
Nacua is trending toward a Week 4 return against the Philadelphia Eagles, and that matters because the Rams’ offense has been uneven through three weeks. Matthew Stafford and company rank just 16th in the league in EPA/Play, a step below where a team with this much preseason buzz expected to be.
The market has already adjusted. At some books, the Buffalo Bills (+670) have drawn even with Los Angeles in Super Bowl odds, while the San Francisco 49ers (+900) and Baltimore Ravens (+900) are both now inside 10/1. That’s a noticeable change from the start of the regular season, when the Rams were the only team priced shorter than 10/1 to win it all.
DraftKings Sportsbook has nudged Los Angeles down, though not by much.
“We've downgraded them about a point and a half relative to the preseason ratings,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Some of that is from missing Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua, but just also from underperforming expectations. But yes, they're still among the top performers.”
Fanatics Sportsbook has also trimmed the Rams, while giving Buffalo a little more respect in the power hierarchy. Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, said the Rams were the unquestioned preseason No. 1, but their opening stretch has forced a re-evaluation.
“The Rams preseason were our clear number one, and by a wide margin,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “And with their start, despite Denver and San Francisco both being quality opponents and really quality losses, they have taken a hit.
“And so with that, the Bills have started to take center stage as our number one. Right now it's a bit of a 1A/1B.
We view the Bills as the clear one in the AFC, Rams clear one in the NFC still, but overall those two are neck-and-neck right now. And if Josh Allen turns out to be fully healthy, then the Bills will likely take that number one spot from the Rams going forward.”
Allen was banged up in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers, but he is not on the injury report for the Patriots game in Week 4.
For now, the bigger picture in the Super Bowl market remains crowded. Fifteen teams are shorter than 30/1, and 10 teams are 20/1 or better. Oddsmakers are clearly not rushing to overreact this early, but the Rams have lost some of their preseason shine.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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