The 2026 Los Angeles Rams look built like a juggernaut, but history has a way of punching holes in preseason hype.
As of Monday, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rams at the top of the Super Bowl board at +500, with the Buffalo Bills next at +1000. That kind of number says plenty on its own, but the offseason moves say even more.
Los Angeles landed defensive end Myles Garrett, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, in a trade with the Cleveland Browns. Add in quarterback Matthew Stafford, the 2025 league MVP, and the picture gets even louder.
Retired defensive lineman Aaron Donald also appears to be getting ready to return for this season in pursuit of a second Super Bowl ring, which would only deepen the gap between the Rams and the rest of the field.
Still, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell dug into the biggest preseason Super Bowl favorites since 1990, and the results are not exactly a billboard for the Rams’ championship hopes.
Barnwell wrote, "Of those 15 most significant favorites, exactly two [1994 San Francisco 49ers and 2018 New England Patriots ] lived up to expectations and took home the Lombardi Trophy," wrote Barnwell. "That might seem like a major disappointment, but it's not far off from what we would have expected given their preseason projections.
If we use the implied win probabilities, the numbers suggest these teams would've won 2.35 Super Bowls. Winning two in reality is pretty close to what the markets suggested."
The list also included two teams that never even reached the postseason: the 2002 Rams, then in St. Louis, and the 2008 Patriots.
St. Louis finished 7-9, while New England went 11-5 but still lost the AFC East to the Miami Dolphins.
In both cases, injuries at quarterback helped wreck the season. Kurt Warner dealt with right-hand problems throughout the 2002 campaign, went 0-6 in six starts and missed nine games, while Marc Bulger filled in. In New England, Tom Brady tore the ACL/MCL in his left knee in Week 1, and Matt Cassel took over.
That’s the warning sign for Los Angeles. If Stafford, now 38, were to miss a stretch of games because of a major injury, the Rams would be leaning on Stetson Bennett IV and rookie Ty Simpson, two passers with very little NFL experience.
Bennett, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has not thrown a regular-season pass. Simpson, selected No. 13 in the 2026 NFL Draft, started 15 games for the Alabama Crimson Tide, which is far below the level most successful pro quarterbacks have reached.
By comparison, Stafford started 34 games for the Georgia Bulldogs from 2006-08.
Even if Stafford stays upright, the path still looks rough. Tankathon has the Rams’ 2026 schedule rated as the third-toughest in the NFL.
The NFC West won’t offer much breathing room either. Los Angeles is set to face the Seattle Seahawks, the defending Super Bowl champions, in Weeks 16 and 18.
Seattle lost running back Kenneth Walker III to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency, but otherwise kept most of its roster together and remains positioned to contend again. FanDuel lists Seattle with the third-best Super Bowl odds at +1100.
So yes, anything short of a title would be a letdown for a Rams team assembled this way. But if the past tells us anything, it’s that dream teams do not always end the year with the Lombardi Trophy in their hands.
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