The Los Angeles Rams enter the season carrying a label few teams have worn before: overwhelming Super Bowl favorite.
That status makes sense when you look at the roster. The Rams have the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett and a dangerous receiving tandem in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Their one obvious soft spot was cornerback, and they moved quickly to patch it by taking Trent McDuffie from Kansas City in a trade and then signing Jaylen Watson.
Put it all together and Sean McVay’s team sits at the top of the board to win Super Bowl LXI. According to FanDuel, the Rams are listed at +550, ahead of the Bills (+1000), Ravens (+1100), Seahawks (+1200) and the Chiefs and Chargers, who are tied at +1600.
That kind of preseason favorite is rare. Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, it has happened only five times that one team opened with Super Bowl odds under +1000. It is only the second time an NFC team has been in that spot.
History, though, does not exactly smile on teams handed that kind of pressure.
The 2003 Buccaneers were coming off a Super Bowl title and were expected to make another run, but their season unraveled fast. They started 2-1, then watched things spiral after a Week 4 bye.
In Week 5, Tampa Bay blew a 35-14 lead with four minutes left against Peyton Manning’s Colts and lost 38-35. The Bucs eventually finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs entirely.
The 2009 Patriots were supposed to cruise once Tom Brady returned from the ACL injury that cost him the 2008 season. Instead, they went 10-6, which was worse than their 11-win season with Matt Cassel the year before. Their postseason ended immediately in a 33-14 wild-card loss to the Ravens after New England fell behind 24-0.
Then came the 2010 Colts, who had just gone 14-2 and were expected to keep rolling with Peyton Manning. They finished 10-6 and then were stunned 17-16 by the Jets in the wild-card round, ending Manning’s final healthy season with the team short of the Super Bowl.
The one team that handled the weight was the 2018 Patriots. They were viewed as the best team entering the year, though the Chiefs grabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Patrick Mahomes’ first season as a starter.
New England went 11-5, then won a classic AFC title game in Kansas City, 37-31 in overtime. One of the defining moments came when Dee Ford jumped offside with about a minute left and the Chiefs up 28-24, erasing a Brady interception and opening the door for the Patriots’ comeback.
New England then beat the Rams 13-3 in the Super Bowl, giving Brady and Bill Belichick their final Lombardi Trophy together.
That’s the warning for this Rams team. The betting market may love them, but the past four times a team stood alone as the preseason Super Bowl favorite with odds under +1000, none of them hit their projected win total. Three finished below it, and the 2018 Patriots only pushed.
The Rams’ win total is set at 11.5, and the over looks tempting. But the bigger issue is whether they can stay upright long enough to cash in on all that talent.
Stafford missed most of training camp last season because of a back injury, and the concern around that issue never really disappears. At the NFL Honors ceremony in February, when asked about the Rams’ Week 1 game in Australia, Stafford said, "Seems like a long flight," Stafford said.
"I hope my back's not too sore afterwards, to be honest with you."
The Rams also have to survive a brutal division that includes the defending Super Bowl champs. The Seahawks won the Lombardi Trophy, but the Rams are the team with the massive target on their back.
In Other News...
Jordan Whittington May Finally Be Getting The Rams Trust He Earned
Jordan Whittington has spent two seasons doing a lot of the little things the Rams value and not getting much of the spotlight for it. He has been efficient when targeted and dependable as a blocker, the kind of receiver who can stay on the field even when the ball is not coming his way often, which is why he keeps popping up as a candidate for a bigger offensive turn this year.
The Rams also added former receiver Robert Woods to their coaching staff to work with pass-catchers, a move that could only help a player like Whittington as he tries to carve out more than a supporting role. He is still waiting on his first NFL touchdown, but the bigger question now is whether the trust he has earned finally translates into a more meaningful place in the offense. [Read more 🡒]
Aaron Donald Comeback Buzz Just Got Very Real For Rams Fans
The Rams defense already looks loaded after the addition of Myles Garrett, but the possibility of Aaron Donald circling back into the picture has only added to the intrigue around a unit that was already getting plenty of attention. Donald retired after a Hall of Fame-caliber run that included three Defensive Player of the Year awards and eight first-team All-Pro selections, and he has stayed in excellent shape since stepping away from the game.
Even so, a return would not be as simple as showing up and taking over again. Donald would still need time to get back into football condition, and the latest buzz has only made the question more interesting for Rams fans: is this just offseason noise, or the start of something that could give Sean McVay another rare chance to add a legend to an already dangerous defense? [Read more 🡒]
Rams Fans Finally Know When The New Alternates Hit The Field
The Rams have given fans a first look at two new alternate uniforms, and now theres a calendar attached to the reveal. The Classic Sol and Fearsome White are both set to join the teams wardrobe this season, with each look designed as a nod to earlier eras of Rams football and the franchises long visual history.
The first chance to see one under the lights comes in Week 2 on Monday Night Football against the New York Giants, when the Classic Sol makes its debut. The Fearsome White will have to wait a bit longer, with its first appearance lined up for a late-November meeting with the Green Bay Packers, giving Rams supporters something else to watch as the season unfolds. [Read more 🡒]