Week 5 closes with one of those matchups that feels bigger than the calendar says it should. The Los Angeles Rams and reigning league MVP Matthew Stafford are set to host the Buffalo Bills and current MVP favorite Josh Allen on Monday night, and both teams came into the week sitting at the top of the Super Bowl odds board.
That kind of respect shows up in the betting market too. Fanatics Sportsbook trader Ty Gour told Sports Illustrated that on a neutral field, this game would likely sit as a pick ’em.
He pointed to the absence of Myles Garrett and the possibility of no Aaron Donald, saying that would “take a little bit away from the Rams' defense.” Even so, Gour said that with both teams fully healthy, “the Rams probably land about a 1- to 1.5-point favorite.”
He added, “We don't see much of a gap right now between the two teams, but still notable enough for us to declare the Rams as No. 1.”
The line has settled with Los Angeles favored by a little more at home, and the total has already moved from the opening number of 53.5. That shift makes sense given the expectation for points, but the Rams have also been elite on defense, ranking No. 3 in EPA/Play so far in 2026.
Los Angeles arrives off a comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. The Rams were down 10 in the fourth quarter before scoring on two late touchdown drives to avoid what would have been a rough 1-3 start. Instead, they’re back in a spot where they can keep building momentum, though falling under .500 again is still very much in play if Buffalo finds its footing.
The Bills, meanwhile, are trying to steady things after a frustrating Week 4 loss at home to the New England Patriots. Buffalo’s offense has looked off for two straight weeks, and Allen, dealing with a knee issue, didn’t run much in that game. The question now is whether he opens things up in a high-profile road matchup under the lights.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is backing Los Angeles in his Road to 272 column. His case starts with Buffalo’s defense, which he says has quietly been a real problem.
He noted that the Bills rank 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate, saying, “It's not being talked about enough how bad the Bills' defense has been this season.” He also wrote that Buffalo now has to deal with Stafford and Puka Nacua, “who's going to start hitting his stride.”
MacMillan also pointed out that the Rams defense has been excellent, ranking third in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate, while also sitting in the top 10 against the run. That matters against a Buffalo offense that has cooled off after two strong opening weeks.
He said, “If Buffalo can't rack up the points in this game, the Rams are going to leave them in the dust against this defense. I'm not afraid to lay the points on Los Angeles.”
The Bills’ early-season résumé is part of the reason for MacMillan’s skepticism. He noted that Buffalo’s first two wins came against a Houston team that started 0-4 and a Detroit defense that “can’t stop anyone this season,” which he contrasted with a Rams team that has already faced San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia to open the year.
The result is a Monday night matchup with the feel of a measuring-stick game on both sides. The market expects offense, the metrics point to the Rams’ defense, and the Bills are trying to keep their attack from sliding further after back-to-back uneven weeks. MacMillan’s final call: “I’ll lay the points with the Rams in what should be an instant classic.”
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