The first month of the NFL season has already started to sort the field, and the picture around the Super Bowl race is getting messy in a hurry. The Packers are sitting two games behind the NFC North lead and, even worse, alone in last place in the division. The Rams have their own two-game gap to erase in the NFC West, a stunner in its own right.
It’s still early enough for some of this to bend back toward preseason expectations. Teams will drift.
A few of these early results will age like weird Week 2 weather. But Weeks 1 through 3 have already drawn lines that matter, and they’ve changed the stock report heading into Week 4.
Entering the week, DraftKings had the Rams and Bills at +670, followed by the 49ers and Ravens at +900. The Seahawks sat at +1000, the Chiefs at +1050, the Eagles and Bengals at +1700, the Lions at +1900 and the Broncos at +2000.
Denver is one of the clearest risers. The Broncos’ early slate has been nasty, but they’ve handled the first stretch well enough to give themselves a real shot at 3-1.
After opening with that 31-10 loss to the Chiefs, they’ve stacked back-to-back wins and avoided the kind of early-season slide that can bury a team before October even settles in. That loss in Week 1 had the feel of a harsh verdict on last year’s hype, but it now looks more like a one-off than a warning label.
There are still reasons to squint. The first half against the Rams last week, with Denver digging an ugly 16-0 hole, brought those concerns right back to the surface.
This team may still be too uneven to make a true championship push. Even so, the ceiling is obvious.
Shutting down Matthew Stafford in the second half and smothering Trevor Lawrence the week before showed just how suffocating this defense can be when it’s rolling.
Green Bay, meanwhile, has gone the other direction. If the Packers keep playing this way, the postseason may be a long shot before Thanksgiving even arrives. The only win so far came in overtime against the Jets, and the losses have been ugly in different ways: a total collapse in Week 1 and then a rough defensive showing in a 21-point home loss to the Falcons on Thursday night.
Matt LaFleur didn’t sugarcoat that one, calling it a butt-whooping. The description fit.
The offensive line has looked bad, the defense has not resembled its usual self, and the rushing game has been stranded without Josh Jacobs. None of that is fixing itself overnight.
LaFleur is looking at a season-long project, and his job may hinge on how well he can patch the holes.
There’s also one long-shot team worth watching: the Raiders at +9000. Their 3-0 start has every reason to be viewed through the lens of schedule, since their first three opponents are a combined 1-8. Still, there’s at least a case for leaning in a little.
Klint Kubiak has come out of the gate looking sharp, and his recent track record includes a Super Bowl title as an offensive coordinator who oversaw the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year and helped make Sam Darnold look like a top-flight quarterback at times. Maybe this is the start of something real in Las Vegas.
The defense under Rob Leonard has also been excellent, ranking No. 3 in EPA per play allowed. That too may be tied to the quality of competition, but it has been impressive all the same.
Even with that kind of start, a Super Bowl run would still be a massive leap. Then again, the Patriots made it last year after a four-win season, so stranger things have happened.
Week 4 also brings a handful of games that could tell us a lot more about where this season is headed. Rams at Eagles is the most urgent one on the board.
A 1-3 start for the Rams, who were a preseason Super Bowl favorite, would be hard to believe. The Eagles, meanwhile, have their own problems with offensive mediocrity, and another stumble would only deepen the concern.
Broncos at 49ers has the feel of another major test. Denver has won five straight games as a team, and the road trip is a tough one, especially after Sean Payton’s last away game ended in a three-touchdown loss. On the San Francisco side, the injury situation is worth monitoring again, with Mike Evans and Trent Williams listed as statuses to watch.
Patriots at Bills is the first of two AFC East matchups that were supposed to carry more weight than they do now, though it still matters plenty for Buffalo. New England’s strange start has been driven by Drake Maye’s unexplainable struggles and A.J.
Brown’s absence, and this one has the feel of a game that could go sideways fast. If it does, the Bills will keep reinforcing the idea that they’re the team to beat while the Patriots sink further.
And Jaguars at Bengals has shootout potential written all over it. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence headline a matchup that could end up as the highest-scoring game of the week.
Cincinnati’s defense looked less settled in last week’s loss to the Steelers than it did during the 2-0 start, while Jacksonville already has two 34-point outings on the board. With Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, the Bengals have plenty of firepower to make this one run.
In Other News...
Rams Fans Have A New Reason To Be Furious About That Late Flag
A late pass interference flag in Week 3 already left Rams fans seething, and now Pat Bryant has made the whole sequence look even worse. The Broncos receiver admitted in an interview that he exaggerated the contact on the play against Josh Wallace, a call that wiped out Wallaces interception and kept Denvers drive alive before it ended in a game-winning touchdown.
Bryants comments have only added fuel to the frustration because the play had such a direct impact on the outcome. He also played a part in the Broncos win with two catches, including a touchdown, but it is the flag he helped draw that has drawn the loudest reaction from Rams supporters and plenty of criticism online. [Read more 🡒]
Rams Already Face Doubts About A Linebacker Bet They Needed To Win
Before Week 12 of the 2025 season, Nate Landman had done enough to convince the Rams he was worth locking in. The linebacker signed a three-year, $22.5 million extension after 11 strong weeks, a move meant to give the defense some needed stability in the middle and reward a player who had quickly become part of the plan.
Since then, the return has not matched the investment. Landmans play has slipped, his Pro Football Focus grades have dropped, and the disruptive moments the Rams were counting on have become harder to find. For a team that viewed the deal as a way to secure a reliable presence at linebacker, the timing of the extension is suddenly looking a lot less comfortable than it did when the ink was still fresh. [Read more 🡒]
Rams Non-Call Revived A Debate Fans Know All Too Well
A controversial no-call on a potential pass interference play involving Josh Wallace and Broncos receiver Pat Bryant sent old memories rushing back for Rams fans, because this is the kind of moment that tends to linger long after the final whistle. The play itself sat in that gray area officials live in on Sundays, where contact, timing and interpretation all collide in real time and leave plenty of room for disagreement.
For Los Angeles, the debate was less about one snap than about a familiar frustration that has followed the franchise before, including the 2018 NFC Championship non-call that still comes up whenever a borderline decision goes against them. Pass interference remains one of the league's most subjective judgments, and this latest sequence was another reminder that two viewers can watch the same play and come away convinced of entirely different things. [Read more 🡒]