Super Bowl 2026: Seahawks, Patriots, and the Ultimate Test of Growth
After 284 games, we’re down to one - and it’s a matchup that few predicted back in September. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are headed to Super Bowl 2026, and the early betting markets are giving the edge to the NFC champs.
Seattle opened as a 3.5-point favorite, and that number didn’t stay put for long. By Monday morning, the line had ballooned to as much as -5.5 in some books, reflecting growing confidence in Sam Darnold and a Seahawks team that’s steadily climbed the power rankings all season.
But let’s not forget - this Patriots squad has been defying expectations for months. Their gritty 10-7 win over Denver in the AFC title game came in blizzard conditions and was anything but pretty.
Still, it was enough to punch their ticket to Vegas. Meanwhile, Seattle needed every ounce of Darnold’s best game as a pro - plus a crucial Rams special teams blunder - to escape with a 31-27 win in the NFC Championship.
So how do these two teams stack up heading into the big one? Let’s dig into the journey that brought them here, and what it tells us about the matchup ahead.
The Long Climb: Power Ratings Through the Season
If you looked at these teams in Week 1, you wouldn’t have pegged either as a Super Bowl contender. Seattle started the year with a power rating of -1, New England at -2. But while both began below average, their trajectories couldn’t have been more different - and more telling.
Seattle’s Surge:
The Seahawks’ rise was steady and aggressive.
From Week 4 to Week 8, their rating jumped from 0 to 4.5, adding at least a full point every week. That’s the kind of climb you usually only see from teams that are not just winning, but winning convincingly - and getting better while doing it.
A big reason for that? Belief in head coach Mike Macdonald’s system finally syncing with Sam Darnold’s resurgence.
After a rocky stint in Minnesota, Darnold looked like a placeholder at best. But by midseason, he was playing efficient, confident football, and the Seahawks’ defense - Macdonald’s calling card - was rounding into elite form.
New England’s Grit:
The Patriots, on the other hand, took longer to earn respect.
Early in the year, they were seen as overvalued, largely due to rookie QB Drake Maye’s preseason hype. The market had them pegged just above average, which felt generous considering their 2024 struggles and a lot of unknowns on offense.
But by Week 8, things started to shift. Maye wasn’t just flashing talent - he was making winning plays.
The defense, led by coordinator Zak Kuhr, turned into a force. And while the wins weren’t always pretty, the Patriots kept stacking them up.
By the time the postseason arrived, New England’s rating had climbed to +6, a full 8-point swing from where they started.
Seattle enters the Super Bowl with a +9 rating - their highest mark of the season. New England sits at +6.5. That 2.5-point gap is the largest it’s been all year, and it reflects both Seattle’s offensive growth and some recent concerns about the Patriots’ ability to move the ball against elite defenses.
The Matchup: Seahawks Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Let’s start with the strength-on-strength battle. Seattle’s offense, once a question mark, is now a legitimate weapon.
Darnold’s performance against the Rams in the NFC Championship - efficient, poised, and turnover-free - was the kind of game that changes narratives. The Seahawks are no longer just a defense-first team.
They can beat you on both sides of the ball.
That’s going to test a Patriots defense that’s been the backbone of their postseason run. Kuhr’s unit has been lights-out, with key contributors stepping up at the right time. They’ve forced turnovers, controlled field position, and bailed out an offense that’s struggled to sustain drives.
If New England is going to pull the upset, it’ll likely start with the defense creating short fields or scoring on its own. Darnold has a history of turnover issues - the infamous “seeing ghosts” game still looms large in his reputation - but he’s been composed this postseason. If that version of Darnold shows up again, the Patriots will need to win with more than just defense.
The Patriots Offense: A Study in Survival
Let’s be honest - New England’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in January. Against the Chargers, they averaged six yards per play but still found themselves in a 9-3 slugfest until the fourth quarter. Maye turned the ball over three times, and it took a late touchdown to finally seal the win.
The Texans game was even more of a mixed bag. Yes, the scoreboard showed a double-digit win, but the offense averaged just 3.9 yards per play.
Maye fumbled four times, lost two, and threw another pick. Outside of three touchdown drives, only one of their other 11 possessions gained more than 12 yards.
The defense chipped in with a pick-six, masking what was otherwise a messy offensive showing.
Then came the AFC Championship against Denver, played in a snowstorm. The Patriots managed two 50+ yard drives to open the second half, but only came away with three points.
Before halftime, they had just 67 yards on seven drives. Their lone touchdown came on a short field after a Broncos turnover.
That’s the concern heading into the Super Bowl. Can this offense score enough to keep up with a balanced Seahawks team? If Maye can’t protect the ball or string together drives, it’s hard to see them getting past 20 points - and that’s a problem against the league’s top scoring defense.
The Projection and the Path
On a neutral field, the spread projects to Seahawks -3 - which lines up with where the market opened. But based on how New England’s offense has looked, it’s tough to back them unless the number climbs significantly. Seattle’s defense is too disciplined, too fast, and too opportunistic to give Maye the kind of room he needs to find a rhythm.
That said, there’s a case to be made for the Patriots keeping it close - especially if the line moves to +6 or +7. Their defense is good enough to keep the game within striking distance, and history is on their side.
Underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 11-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl over the last 24 years, with seven outright wins. That includes the Patriots’ own iconic upset of the Rams in Super Bowl 36.
So while the lean is toward Seattle, especially with Darnold playing clean football, there’s a path for New England - and it starts with keeping the Seahawks offense off balance, forcing a turnover or two, and finding just enough offense to stay in it.
The early play? Patriots team total under 20.5 points.
It’s not flashy, but it fits what we’ve seen all postseason. And if the spread keeps climbing, there might be value in grabbing the points with a team that’s made a living out of proving people wrong.
Welcome to Super Bowl 2026 - where grit meets growth, and the margin for error is razor-thin.