Through four weeks, the Rams’ offense has looked like the kind of unit that should be living near the top of the NFL. The yardage says as much. Los Angeles ranks second in total offense at 417 yards per game and second in passing at 290.3 yards per game.
But the scoreboard tells a different story. The Rams are only 19th in points per game at 21.3, and their offensive EPA per play sits at -0.05, which ranks 16th.
On a snap-to-snap basis, they’ve been productive. On the plays that swing games, they’ve been far less reliable.
And at the center of that disconnect is Matthew Stafford.
That’s the uncomfortable truth for a team that still clearly runs best with Stafford under center. This is not an argument for a benching, even with a first-round pick sitting behind him. It’s an argument that the Rams need more from the quarterback who is supposed to be the engine of the whole operation.
Stafford has still flashed the kind of throws that remind everyone why the Rams trust him. He helped fuel a comeback last week, and his arm talent is not in question.
What has been missing is the steady command that keeps drives alive and keeps the other team out of scoring position. The mistakes have piled up too often, and they’ve come at the worst possible times.
That was on display again in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, when Stafford threw an interception on the opening drive. It was the first time in his career that he has thrown a pick in each of the first four games of a season. After four games, he has six touchdown passes and six interceptions.
Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in every game this season. According to ESPN Research, this is his longest streak to open a season in his career.
The numbers around him are not pretty either. Going into Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills, Stafford is 17th in ESPN’s QBR.
His 80.5 quarterback rating ranks 21st and trails Cam Ward, Aaron Rodgers, Tyson Bagent, Jacoby Brissett, and CJ Stroud. It’s only 0.1 better than Bo Nix.
His -0.01 EPA per pass ranks 19th, and that’s before even getting to the plays that never should have happened in the first place.
Against the Eagles, Stafford gave Philadelphia two turnovers even though the defense had not forced one all season before that game. He was directly responsible for 10 of the Eagles’ 20 first-half points. The interception at the end of the first half was a brutal one, and the Rams simply could not afford it.
The turnover issue has been a theme. The Rams’ defense has three interceptions this season, and on two of those occasions Stafford has handed the ball right back with a pick. Pro Football Focus has him at eight turnover-worthy plays in 2026, tied for fourth most in the league.
The regression was always coming to some degree after his MVP season, but this has gone well beyond normal correction. Stafford’s turnover-worthy-play rate is 4.3 percent, the worst it has been since his rookie year with the Detroit Lions in 2009. Fantasy Points Data has his turnover-worthy throw rate even higher at 6.7 percent, which trails only Trevor Lawrence.
That part of Stafford’s game has always come with some risk. He trusts his arm, and at times he trusts it too much. This year, that has shown up in a few of his picks.
The problems are not limited to turnovers. Stafford has also been off on deep throws.
Last season, he posted a 46.7 percent success rate on deep targets with an EPA per pass of 0.74. Those marks ranked fifth and sixth, respectively.
This season, his EPA per pass on deep throws is -0.17, which ranks 26th, and his 28.6 percent success rate ranks 24th. That is an 18-point drop in success rate.
There have been examples of that decline. Against the Denver Broncos, he missed Davante Adams on a few deep chances. He also slightly overthrew Adams on a double move after Adams had beaten his man at the line of scrimmage.
Still, the entire picture is not bleak. Stafford remains capable of making high-end throws.
His seven big-time throws, according to PFF, rank seventh. On tight-window passes, his 0.55 EPA per dropback ranks third behind Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.
There’s also reason to think Stafford will get better as the season goes on. Since 2023, he has averaged 0.08 EPA per dropback in Weeks 1-4 and 0.14 from Weeks 5-18.
That’s about a 77 percent increase in efficiency after the first month. If the sample is stretched to Weeks 1-6, he has averaged 0.06 EPA per dropback compared to 0.16 in Weeks 7-18, which makes him roughly 2.5 times more efficient after the first month and a half.
The last two seasons have shown that pattern even more clearly.
The Rams are past that first month now, and the schedule eases a bit after Monday night’s game against the Bills. Puka Nacua is already back, Terrance Ferguson is expected to return eventually, and Los Angeles should be fully stocked at the skill spots again. Even then, the full version of this offense has not yet been seen.
That’s the point for the Rams. They do not need Stafford to be the exact MVP version of himself from last season.
They do need him to stop being one of the main reasons the offense stalls out. The turnovers have to clean up.
The deep-ball accuracy has to sharpen. And if Stafford’s history is any guide, better football should be on the way.
The Rams can still ride his arm. They just need it to start producing points with a lot more consistency.
In Other News...
Rams Suddenly Have A Roster Decision They Didnt Expect Up Front
The Rams are heading into a familiar kind of roster conversation, only this one was not supposed to arrive this early. Justin Dedich and Keagen Trost are both eligible to come off injured reserve after missing the start of the season, and their status now gives Los Angeles a little more to weigh up front as the line has held together reasonably well through the first four games.
Sean McVay has made clear how useful both linemen can be as depth pieces, but any move to bring one back would come with a cost elsewhere on the roster. With the line relatively stable for now, the Rams are in the rare position of deciding whether to add help before they truly need it, and that kind of choice can shape the depth chart in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Aaron Donald's Rams Injury Setup Protected More Than His Back
Aaron Donalds back kept him out of the Rams Week 4 game, but the way Los Angeles handled his status did more than preserve a roster spot. By leaving him on the 53-man active roster instead of moving him to injured reserve, the team ensured he remained eligible for his weekly roster bonus, since his contract pays him for being on the active roster rather than simply dressing on game day.
Donald has appeared in two games this season while working his way back and producing only limited statistics, a reminder that the Rams are managing both his health and his place on the roster with care. For a player of his importance, every administrative detail matters almost as much as the injury report, and this setup gave the club a way to protect both its star and the money attached to him while he recovered. [Read more 🡒]
Eagles Rainy Loss Sparked A Viral Moment Fans Didn't See
Rain turned the Rams-Eagles matchup into the kind of messy NFL Sunday that tests everyone involved, not just the players. Erin Andrews gave fans a behind-the-scenes look at what covering a game looks like when the weather gets ugly, posting photos and video on Instagram that showed the preparation and the headaches that come with doing television work in the rain.
For the Rams, the conditions only added to a comeback win that stood out for more than the scoreboard. Kyren Williams was a big part of the rally and later spoke with Andrews afterward, praising his team in an interview that fit the mood of a victory earned the hard way, on a night when even the broadcast booth had to fight through the elements. [Read more 🡒]