The Buffalo Bills head to Los Angeles on Monday night with a chance to reset after a Week 4 home loss to the New England Patriots, but they won’t be getting an easy landing spot. The Rams entered Week 5 as the No. 1 team in the latest Super Bowl odds, with Buffalo right behind them at No. 2, setting up a matchup that feels every bit like an early-season heavyweight fight.
Los Angeles is coming off a dramatic escape against the Philadelphia Eagles, rallying from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit in Week 4 to avoid falling to 1-3. Even with the Rams dealing with injuries, including one mainly to Myles Garrett, they’ve stayed near the top of the league’s power ratings. Buffalo, meanwhile, is trying to steady itself after a defense that has raised real questions through four games.
That defensive side of the ball is the big concern for the Bills entering this one. Josh Allen and the offense have done enough to keep Buffalo in the contender class, but the unit on the other side has struggled badly.
Through four weeks, Buffalo ranks 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate, numbers that put it near the bottom of the league. The only defenses worse in those categories are the Lions’ and Cowboys’.
That’s part of why SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is backing the Rams to win and cover at home in his Road to 272 column.
"It's not being talked about enough how bad the Bills' defense has been this season. It led to them losing in Week 4 to the Patriots, and now they have to face the reigning MVP and Puka Nacua, who's going to start hitting his stride.
Buffalo now ranks 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate. The only defenses that have been worse are the Lions' and Cowboys'.
Meanwhile, the Rams defense is third in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate. They're also a top-10 defense in stopping the run, a huge key in slowing down the Bills' offense.
If Buffalo can't rack up the points in this game, the Rams are going to leave them in the dust against this defense. I'm not afraid to lay the points on Los Angeles."
MacMillan is also looking at Josh Allen to find the end zone again. Allen has scored in every game this season and already has seven total touchdowns in 2026.
Even with his Week 4 rushing workload dropping to five carries for four yards and a score, he still has 33 carries on the year and has logged at least five carries in every game. He has also scored 12 or more rushing touchdowns in each of his last three completed seasons.
The receiving prop market brings Davante Adams into focus, and MacMillan has him ranked No. 3 on his Week 5 player prop countdown. The logic is tied directly to Buffalo’s struggling secondary, which ranks 27th in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate.
"Not enough people are talking about how bad the Buffalo Bills' secondary has been.
They're 27th in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. With that in mind, I'll target Davante Adams to go over his receiving yards total.
It's 30 yards lower than Puka Nacua's, but I still have some concerns about Nacua being fully healthy in this game."
There’s also a case to be made for James Cook if Buffalo leans on him the way it should. The reigning rushing yards leader is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and ran for 75 yards on only 12 attempts in Week 4. He has already cleared 130 rushing yards in both games in which he’s received more than 20 carries.
The matchup could support that kind of workload, too. The Rams have been more vulnerable against the run, sitting 14th in EPA/Rush, while Buffalo’s passing game will be dealing with a Los Angeles defense that ranks third in EPA/Pass.
Cook’s best path is volume, and his production has been strongest when he’s gotten it. MacMillan expects a bounce-back night for Buffalo’s star back under the lights.
In Other News...
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None of that guarantees the Rams will actually swing a deal, but it does make the next stretch feel more consequential than usual. Each of those clubs could eventually decide to reset rather than push forward, which would open the door for players who fit what the Rams like to do in-season. For a team built to stay competitive now, the bigger question is less whether help could be available and more whether Snead sees the right opportunity before the deadline passes. [Read more 🡒]
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The bigger question for Rams fans, of course, is what comes next with Myles Garrett. McVay said Garrett remains on injured reserve after knee surgery and offered no new information on his status, adding that the practice window likely will not open next week. For a team still tracking every bit of defensive depth it can get its hands on, the update leaves Garrett exactly where he has been for now, with the wait continuing and no fresh timetable to hang onto. [Read more 🡒]
Rams Fans Have One Clear Rooting Interest In 49ers Seahawks
The Rams have spent the first month of the season looking up at both San Francisco and Seattle in the NFC West standings, which has made the coming Week 5 slate especially relevant in Los Angeles. For a team trying to keep its playoff path alive, these next results matter less as simple rivalries and more as scoreboard math, with each outcome nudging the Rams either closer to the division conversation or toward the wild card picture.
From the Rams perspective, the clearest rooting interest is in Seattle, where a Seahawks loss would help improve Los Angeles position in the chase for a postseason berth. A 49ers loss would also carry weight by shifting the balance in the division race, and that is the kind of early-season leverage the Rams can use while the standings are still tight and every NFC West result seems to carry double meaning. [Read more 🡒]