As we roll into the final stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is finally starting to take shape. Monday night’s action helped lock in a few more postseason spots, and with just two weeks left, the stakes are sky-high for teams still jockeying for position-or simply fighting to get in. Let’s break down where things stand across both conferences, starting with the AFC, where the postseason race is as tight as ever.
AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
Denver Broncos (12-3)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%
The Broncos may have stumbled against the Jaguars in Week 16, but their postseason ticket was already punched. Now, the focus shifts to locking down the AFC West.
A win over the Chiefs on Christmas, coupled with a Chargers loss to the Texans, would hand Denver the division crown. That would also mean a home game to open the playoffs-a massive edge for a team that’s been solid all year.
New England Patriots (12-3)
Remaining opponents above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 99%
It’s been a long road back to the top for New England, but here they are, one win (or a little help) away from their first AFC East title since 2018. The magic number is two: either the Patriots win both of their final games (Jets and Dolphins), or the Bills drop one of theirs.
Either scenario gets it done. The Pats have quietly built a balanced, playoff-ready roster-and now they’re in prime position to reclaim the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%
Winners of six straight, the Jaguars are officially playoff-bound. This team has found its groove at the right time, and now they’re eyeing the AFC South crown.
If they can take care of business against the Colts in Indy and the Texans slip up against the Chargers, Jacksonville will clinch the division for the first time since 2022. The Jags are surging-and dangerous.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
Remaining opponents above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 78%
The Steelers are still in the mix for the AFC North title, but they’ll need help. First, they have to beat the Browns on the road.
Then they’ll be scoreboard watching, hoping the Ravens fall to the Packers at Lambeau. If both of those things happen, Pittsburgh takes the division.
It’s a tall order, but not out of reach for a team that’s battled all season.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 100%
The Chargers are in, but they’re not done. Saturday’s home game against the Texans is massive.
If L.A. wins, they’ll set up a Week 18 showdown with Denver for the AFC West title. Win that, and they’re hosting a playoff game.
Lose, and they’re hitting the road as a wild card. Either way, this team has the firepower to make noise in January.
Buffalo Bills (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%
Buffalo is playoff-bound and still has a shot at the AFC East title. They’ll need to win out and get a little help, but regardless of how the seeding shakes out, this is arguably the best postseason setup the Bills have had in the Josh Allen era. With Mahomes and Burrow watching from home, the conference feels wide open-and Buffalo knows it.
Houston Texans (10-5)
Remaining opponents above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 97%
The Texans are still in the hunt for the AFC South. For that to happen, they need to beat the Chargers and hope the Jaguars stumble in Indy.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans has this young team believing, and their physical style could translate well to playoff football. First, though, they’ve got to survive a tough road test in L.A.
NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%
Seattle pulled off a thrilling overtime win against the Rams on Thursday night and now has extra time to prep for Carolina. If the Seahawks beat the Panthers and both the Rams and 49ers lose this weekend, Seattle will walk away with the NFC West crown. That’s a lot of moving parts, but the Seahawks are doing their part-and looking like a legit contender in the process.
Chicago Bears (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 100%
What a turnaround for the Bears. After an improbable finish in regulation and a walk-off touchdown in overtime to beat the Packers, Chicago now controls the NFC North.
Caleb Williams continues to show why he was the No. 1 pick, and DJ Moore is making clutch plays when it matters. Next up: a massive test against the 49ers in Santa Clara, followed by a Week 18 matchup with the Lions.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%
The Eagles have locked up the NFC East and are likely locked into the No. 3 seed. There’s still a slim chance to move up, but it would take a chaotic series of events.
For now, Philly is focused on staying sharp and healthy heading into the postseason. They’ll take on the Bills this week in a game that could still impact seeding.
Carolina Panthers (8-7)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 43%
The Panthers still control their own destiny in the NFC South. If they beat the Seahawks at home and the Buccaneers fall to the Dolphins, Carolina clinches the division.
It’s been an up-and-down year, but with a win this weekend, everything changes. The path is clear-they just have to walk it.
San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 100%
After a gutsy win over the Colts on Monday night, the 49ers are in the playoffs and in position to run the table in the NFC. If they can beat the Bears and Seahawks over the next two weeks, they’ll take the NFC West and secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s a big "if," but the Niners are built for this kind of stretch run.
Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
Remaining opponents above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 100%
The Rams are still alive for the division, but they’ll need some help. First, they’ve got to handle their own business against the Falcons on Monday night.
Then they’ll be rooting for the Panthers to beat the Seahawks and the Bears to take down the 49ers. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.
Either way, the Rams are locked into the postseason and could be a tough out.
Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
Remaining opponents above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 78%
Green Bay can punch its playoff ticket this Saturday with a win over the Ravens at Lambeau. If they don’t get it done, they’ll need the Lions to lose to the Vikings on Christmas. The Packers have been streaky, but with the postseason on the line and a home game in December, you can never count them out.
With just two weeks to go, the playoff race is heating up fast. Every snap matters now-divisions are still up for grabs, seeding is in flux, and a handful of teams are clinging to postseason hopes by the thinnest of threads.
Buckle up. December football is delivering once again.