The Week 1 spotlight falls on one of the NFL’s best rivalries, and the betting market is already leaning toward the Los Angeles Rams.
Thursday Night Football in the 2026 season opens with the Rams and San Francisco 49ers meeting in Australia for the first of two games between them this year. It’s a matchup between NFC West teams that both reached the playoffs in 2025, though Los Angeles went all the way to the NFC title game and spent most of the season looking like one of the league’s top teams.
That’s why the Rams entered Week 1 as favorites not only in this game, but in the futures markets as well. They’re the pick to win the Super Bowl, the NFC and the NFC West.
San Francisco, though, has plenty of reason to believe it can disrupt that picture right away. Kyle Shanahan’s team was hit hard by injuries last season, including season-ending issues for Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, but it comes into this opener healthier than it was a year ago. Brock Purdy is back trying to push the 49ers back into the Super Bowl race after leading them there in the 2023 season.
The challenge is steep. Purdy draws a Rams defense that has been transformed by the additions of Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in trades, plus the return of Aaron Donald from retirement for the 2026 campaign. That group now carries as much star power as the offense, which still features MVP Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The line has already moved toward Los Angeles. The Rams opened as 2.5-point favorites in this neutral-site game, but the spread has since crossed the key number of three and the moneyline sits at -200.
“Not a lot of significant line movement at this time, most would be driven by injury news to quarterbacks, but the Rams did move from -2.5 to -3.5 versus the 49ers,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM told Sports Illustrated.
“The combo of the 49ers dealing with injuries to WR/TE and the Rams trading for Myles Garrett and adding Donald (drove the line movement).”
The Rams’ defensive upgrades are a huge part of why they’re viewed as the Super Bowl favorite entering Week 1. Donald, Garrett, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson give Los Angeles a unit that can match the firepower on the other side of the ball. That’s a big reason expectations are so high after Stafford’s MVP season in 2025, with John Fanta telling Sports Illustrated earlier this week that he sees the year as “Super Bowl or bust,” for L.A.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is still dealing with injury questions in camp and is hoping to get George Kittle back after his Achilles injury last season. But the 49ers already showed last year that they can survive chaos, reach the playoffs and even win a postseason game. That makes them dangerous, even as underdogs.
The numbers reflect that tension. The Rams’ -200 moneyline implies a 66.7 percent chance of opening the season 1-0, but this is not a simple home-field spot to price, especially with the game being the first NFL matchup in Australia.
One more wrinkle: Shanahan has gone 11-7 against Sean McVay in their careers. The 49ers are also 22-17 as road underdogs since Shanahan became head coach in 2017, though they’re only 32-29 against the spread in those spots and have averaged a minus-4.4-point scoring margin.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
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Rams Make Another Quick Draft Pick Decision Fans Will Notice
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Sheriff arrives with a different opportunity in front of him after previously spending time with the Seahawks, and the Rams view him as developmental depth on the edge. It is the kind of roster churn that can look minor on the surface, but for a team constantly sorting through young talent, these decisions can hint at where the staff thinks the next useful piece might come from. [Read more 🡒]