Luka Doncic is the clear name to watch in ESPN’s Summer Forecast when it comes to the NBA scoring title.
The Lakers star drew 11 votes from the panel, more than double anyone else in the field. Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second with five votes, Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards was next with three, and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama picked up the lone remaining vote.
That kind of support makes Doncic the overwhelming favorite to repeat as the league’s top scorer. He took home his second scoring crown by putting up 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.5 blocks per game for the Lakers in 2025-26. Before that, the Slovenian had already led the NBA in scoring in 2023-24, when he averaged 33.9 points per game for the Dallas Mavericks.
If he does it again, Doncic would join a very short list. No player has gone back-to-back since Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid in 2022 and 2023, and a third scoring title would make Doncic just the 10th player in NBA history to win three or more.
There’s also the version of Doncic entering next season that has plenty of people buzzing. He’s reportedly coming in in the best shape of his life, and the six-time All-Star looks pretty slim. Former NBA star Gilbert Arenas believes that spells trouble for everyone else in the league.
Arenas said Doncic will win the scoring title and pointed to LeBron James leaving for the 76ers, which would leave the 27-year-old with a bigger offensive load.
Gilgeous-Alexander looks like the biggest roadblock. The Thunder star was the panel’s second choice after a season in which he averaged 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game.
That marked his fourth straight season averaging at least 30 points, and it came on the heels of his 2024-25 scoring title run, when he averaged 32.7 points per game. The four-time All-Star is very much in the conversation.
Edwards landed third, and his case is built on steady growth. He averaged 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game for Minnesota in 2025-26, and his scoring average has climbed every season.
If that trend continues, he should be right around 30 points. The Timberwolves also added LaMelo Ball this offseason, giving Edwards what could be the best playmaker he’s played with.
Wembanyama was the longshot in the scoring race, getting just one vote. He averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, and 3.1 blocks per game in 2025-26. His defensive dominance is beyond question, but the offensive side still has room to grow, which explains why he barely cracked the scoring-title conversation.
Even so, ESPN’s insiders are all-in on Wembanyama in other categories. He was the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year with 108 points, while no other player topped 20.
He also led the MVP voting with 102 points. Nikola Jokic was second with 31, Doncic was third with 28, and Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning back-to-back MVP, came in fourth with 26.
The panel’s read on the Lakers was much colder. ESPN’s insiders projected Doncic’s team to slip to sixth in the Western Conference at 45-37, a notable drop from last season’s 53-29 mark and fourth-place finish in the West. They also made clear that the Lakers’ overhauled roster is not something they’re buying into right now.
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Still, the long-term question is hard to avoid. An ESPN poll of NBA insiders found that while most believe Doncic will stay beyond the 2026-27 season, a notable slice of experts think he could be on the move by then, and that kind of split only adds to the pressure around ownership changes and the teams competitiveness. The Lakers do not have to solve that tomorrow, but they do have to keep building a case that their present is strong enough to matter in his future. [Read more 🡒]