The Lakers’ offseason makeover hasn’t moved the needle for ESPN’s NBA insiders, who see a team that’s still good enough to stay out of the play-in picture but nowhere near the West’s elite tier.
In ESPN’s 2026-27 standings projection, Los Angeles lands sixth in the conference at 45-37. That puts the Lakers just ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers, who are forecast to finish seventh at 43-39, and well behind a top five that is expected to all reach at least 50 wins. Minnesota is slotted fifth at 50-32.
That’s a meaningful slide for a team that finished fourth in the West in 2025-26 with a 53-29 mark.
The projection also reflects how much has changed around Luka Doncic. The Lakers are coming off back-to-back 50-win seasons under JJ Redick, including a 50-32 finish in 2024-25, but the roster around him looks very different now. LeBron James is gone after leaving for the Philadelphia 76ers, and Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton and Luke Kennard are also out of the mix.
In their place, the Lakers have brought in Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams, while also adding Cameron Carr in a draft-day trade. The result is a younger group, and the organization’s thinking is clearly centered on building this core over the next three to five years.
Doncic and Austin Reaves are the faces of that next phase. Doncic has reportedly embraced the roster changes, and he took on a larger leadership role this summer by hosting a minicamp in Slovenia. He also showed up in stunning shape there, which drew praise from former NBA star Gilbert Arenas, who believes the rest of the league is in trouble.
There’s still a case for the Lakers beating the projection. Malika Andrews recently said she thinks they could even slip out of the top six, but Doncic gives Los Angeles a real chance to push higher than sixth. The six-time All-Star averaged 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.5 blocks per game in 2025-26, and that kind of production keeps the ceiling much higher than a cautious forecast suggests.
Still, the broader picture is clear: this may not be a title-ready roster, but it’s one that could land around 50 wins and fight for a top-four seed if Doncic carries it the way many expect him to.
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