LeBron James didn’t offer any clues about his future during All-Star Weekend, but that hasn’t stopped the NBA world from buzzing. Retirement?
A new deal with the Lakers? Or maybe-just maybe-a third act in Cleveland?
That last possibility is gaining traction around the league. According to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, there’s “rampant speculation” that LeBron could return to where it all began. And while the storylines practically write themselves-LeBron coming home for one final run-the financial logistics are anything but simple.
Cleveland’s Cap Crunch: Can the Cavs Make Room?
Let’s start with the money. The Cavaliers are currently operating with the highest payroll in the NBA, and they’re the only team sitting above the league’s $207.8 million second apron.
That’s the most punitive tier of the NBA’s new luxury tax system, and it comes with serious restrictions. Right now, Cleveland is projected to remain in that territory next season, which limits their options significantly when it comes to adding new talent-including LeBron.
If the Cavs stay above the second apron in 2026-27, they’d be unable to offer LeBron anything more than a veteran minimum deal in free agency. That would net him $3.9 million due to his 10+ years of service, though it would only count for about $2.5 million against the cap. From Cleveland’s perspective, that would be the dream scenario-LeBron taking the minimum to chase one last ring at home.
But that’s a big “if.” If LeBron wants more than the minimum-and who could blame him?-the Cavs would have to do some serious maneuvering.
The Mid-Level Exception Route
To offer more than the minimum, Cleveland would need to get below the second apron. That would give them access to the $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception-a modest bump, but still far less than LeBron’s market value.
To get there, the Cavs would likely need to offload significant salary. Think Max Strus ($16.7 million) or Dennis Schröder ($14.8 million).
Shedding one of those contracts could be enough to sneak under the line.
Cavs GM Koby Altman hinted that the front office has a plan if they need to pivot. After the trade deadline, he told reporters that while they knew they’d be in second apron territory this year, they’ve been preparing for a way out.
“Coming into the deadline, we were in the wilderness in terms of how do you see getting out of that second apron?” Altman said.
“We got closer after the De’Andre Hunter trade, and then obviously moving Lonzo into [cap] space gets you even closer. So you can see it now.
It’s in clear sight. And I think in the summer, if we want to pull that lever, we can.”
Translation: the Cavs have some flexibility. But it’s going to take work.
The First Apron Dilemma
If LeBron is looking for more than the $6.1 million MLE-say, something closer to the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception-Cleveland’s situation gets even trickier. Using that exception would hard-cap them at the first apron, and they’re currently projected to be nearly $15 million over that threshold for 2026-27. And that’s before factoring in any salary for LeBron.
Getting under the first apron would likely require a significant shakeup. One hypothetical?
Sending Jarrett Allen out in a sign-and-trade for LeBron. That would help with the math, but it would also hard-cap the Cavs at the first apron and force them to reconfigure their core.
In short, the Cavs can make a LeBron reunion happen-but only if he’s willing to meet them halfway on the financial side.
Would LeBron Say Yes?
That’s the million-dollar question. At 41, LeBron is still putting up 22 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game.
He’s not the force he once was, but he’s still a top-tier contributor. He’s the kind of player teams bend over backward to sign, even in the twilight of his career.
The Cavaliers have already made it clear: the door is open. According to ESPN’s Dave McMenamin, Cleveland “would gladly welcome James back this summer if he wanted to return.” And Donovan Mitchell, the face of the current Cavs roster, has also expressed interest in teaming up with LeBron.
If Cleveland could roll out a core of LeBron, Mitchell, James Harden, and Evan Mobley, that’s a group with real upside. It’s also a potential insurance policy if the Cavs are concerned about Mitchell’s long-term future in Cleveland. A LeBron return could be a short-term jolt and a long-term pitch to keep their star guard around.
From a basketball perspective, it makes sense. From a financial one?
That depends entirely on how much LeBron is willing to sacrifice. If he’s okay with the minimum or the taxpayer MLE, the Cavs could pull this off.
But if he wants anything more substantial, Cleveland will need to make some tough decisions-and fast.
One thing’s for sure: the idea of LeBron suiting up in wine and gold one more time isn’t just a pipe dream. It’s a real possibility. But the clock is ticking, and the math isn’t easy.